Daily Strategic Briefing

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

"Today's market activity shows a mixed picture, with major indexes like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ experiencing gains, while the VIX volatility index declined sharply, indicating increasing investor confidence. Developments in AI continue to accelerate, as evidenced by AI surpassing human-written content in reader preference and Meta AI's app experiencing a surge in downloads after introducing an AI video feed. Simultaneously, regulatory scrutiny around AI intensifies with the FTC removing posts about AI risks. Geopolitically, the EU approved a ban on Russian gas imports, while the US and Australia have reached a critical minerals agreement, potentially shifting trade dynamics. In the tech sector, investment continues in AI, with top researchers from OpenAI and Google Brain attracting significant VC funding. However, the Indian FDI turned negative, potentially reflecting broader economic challenges."

  • Monitor the rapidly evolving AI landscape, especially concerning content creation and consumer behavior, to identify and capitalize on new market opportunities.
  • Assess the implications of increasing regulatory scrutiny on AI, particularly regarding consumer harm and open-source models, to ensure proactive compliance and risk mitigation.
  • Evaluate the potential impact of geopolitical shifts, such as the US-Australia trade agreement, on our supply chains and market access.
  • Track the performance of the Indian economy as its FDI turns negative and consider its impact on potential investments and market strategies.
  • Stay informed on the volatility in the financial sector, especially the banking sector, as interest rate adjustments and the global economic outlook could influence future performance.

Market Dashboard

S&P 500

6,735.13 (+1.07%)

NASDAQ

22,990.54 (+1.37%)

VIX

18.23 (-12.27%)

Enterprise Technology News

AI wins Imitation Game: Readers prefer Fanfic written by ChatGPT

Shall I refer thee to all those lawsuits about fair use? Researchers think this result makes them worth revisiting Readers of texts created to use the styles of famous authors prefer works written by AI to human human-written imitations, but only after developers fine-tune AI models to understand an author’s output.…

Suspected Salt Typhoon snoops lurking in European telco's network

It's Typhoon season…year round China's Salt Typhoon gang appears to have successfully attacked a European telecommunications firm, according to security researchers at Darktrace.…

Nexperia drama intensifies as Dutch chipmaker denies ousted CEO's claims of Chinese split

The government in the Netherlands has taken control of the company Nexperia, a Dutch chipmaker that's found itself at the center of a geopolitical crisis, has denied claims by its former CEO that its Chinese division is now operating as an independent entity.…

Aid groups use AI-generated ‘poverty porn’ to juice fundraising efforts

Researchers accuse tech firms of profiting from exploitative AI imagery The starving child whose picture broke your heart when you saw it on a charity website may not be real. Global health researchers say that stock image companies like Adobe are profiting from AI-generated "poverty porn" that non-profits are using to drum up donations.…

Windows 11 tiptoes further into dark mode with new dialogs

Some portions of the OS are still stuck on light Windows 11 launched way back in October 2021 and has become Microsoft’s must-have OS thanks to the impending end-of-life for Windows 10. After all that time, there are still significant portions of the OS that don’t do dark mode. However, Redmond is making significant progress, bringing a couple of key dialog boxes into compliance.…

AI News

YC alum Cercli, an AI-powered Rippling for MENA, raises oversubscribed $12M Series A

Summary:

In a region long defined by fragmented enterprise systems, outdated compliance tools, and HR software that rarely talks to finance, Cercli is building a unified alternative for MENA businesses with AI at its core. The Dubai-based startup, founded by ex-Careem operators Akeed Azmi and David Reche, has announced an oversubscribed $12 million Series A round led by […]

Top OpenAI, Google Brain researchers set off a $300M VC frenzy for their startup Periodic Labs 

Summary:

When Liam Fedus announced he was quitting OpenAI, VCs swarmed. One even wrote a love letter. Here’s how Felicis’ Peter Deng won the deal.

Meta AI’s app downloads and daily users spiked after launch of ‘Vibes’ AI video feed

Summary:

New data from Similarweb shows Meta AI’s mobile app is surging in popularity, jumping from 775,000 to 2.7 million daily active users in just four weeks. The app is now seeing roughly 300,000 new installs per day — up from under 200,000 previously.

Anthropic brings Claude Code to the web

Summary:

Anthropic now lets developers spin up Claude Code agents, and manage them, from their web browser on desktop and mobile.

FTC removes Lina Khan-era posts about AI risks and open source

Summary:

One post, authored by Khan’s staff, was published on January 3, 2025, with the title “AI and the Risk of Consumer Harm.” It noted that the FTC was “taking note of AI’s potential for real-world instances of harm — from incentivizing commercial surveillance to enabling fraud and impersonation to perpetuating illegal discrimination.” 

Funding & Startup News: India

Pidilite Ventures doubles down on education-focused Imagimake, invests Rs 34 Cr

The latest funding — a mix of primary and secondary capital — will help Imagimake expand manufacturing capacity, strengthen R&D, and deepen its global distribution network.

Kuku raises $85M in Series C round led by Granite Asia

The company intends to use the newly raised funds to strengthen the firm’s AI and data infrastructure, expand talent pool across technology and content, and deepen creator partnerships as well as accelerate scaling.

[Weekly funding roundup Oct 11-17] Zepto deal pushes VC inflow to its highest level for 2025

The third week of October saw a sharp spike in VC funding, with the primary boost coming in from the $450 million funding deal of quick commerce startup Zepto.

FableStreet parent raises Rs 50 Cr to support its offline store rollout

FS Life, the parent company of FableStreet, plans to use the fundraise to support its offline expansion.

L Catterton invests in Pune-based healthcare chain Healing Hands Clinic

The deal will give Healing Hands access to L Catterton’s global experience in building consumer healthcare businesses and support its plans to expand beyond its current network of 36 clinics across 14 cities.

India Market Highlights

SBI Raises ₹7,500 Cr via Tier-2 Bonds

SBI raised Rs 7,500 crore via tier-two bonds; NSDL advised by SEBI to remit Rs 15.6 crore. Unimech Aerospace commissions 2 Bengaluru facilities; Precision Wires allots shares at Rs 151 each. Source: NDTV Profit

HDFC Bank Outlook Revised, Highlights Strong Market Leadership

HDFC Bank sees evaluation adjustment, highlighting robust financials and strong market leadership. The shift in outlook reinforces HDFC Bank's top position in private sector banking. Source: Marketsmojo

IndusInd Bank CEO Plans Revamp, Sets 6-Month Timeline

IndusInd Bank CEO Rajiv Anand plans to rebuild senior management in 6 months following predecessor's exit. Anand outlines a 3-year roadmap to revamp the private lender after accounting lapses. Source: Business Standard

JSW Steel Sees Demand Boost in H2, Plans Capex Hike for 43.4MT Goal

JSW Steel expects stronger steel demand in H2 due to lower rates, pent-up demand, and festive season boosts. The firm plans to increase capex spending in H2, targeting 43.4MT capacity in 3 years; Odisha plant progress underway. Source: The Economic Times

Rupee Gains to 87.98/USD on Weak Dollar, Softer Crude Prices

Rupee appreciated to 87.975/USD, driven by weak dollar, softer crude prices, and US-India tariff talks. RBL Bank's potential $3B inflows, RBI interventions, and trade progress may further strengthen rupee. Source: The Hindu BusinessLine

Global Economic Indicators

Aussie 10Y Yield Moves Back Toward 6-Month Low

Country: Australia, Description: Australia’s 10-year bond yield fell to around 4.12%, moving back toward a six-month low as expectations of imminent rate cuts outweighed optimism over the new US–Australia trade agreement. September’s jobless rate rose to its highest level since 2021, prompting markets to raise bets on an RBA rate cut to about a 70% chance of a 25 bps reduction, up from roughly 40% before the data release last week. Investors are now turning to upcoming economic data that could influence the RBA’s November policy decision, including flash PMI readings this week and the key Q3 CPI report next week. Meanwhile, risk appetite improved after a breakthrough between US President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who signed a critical minerals pact aimed at reducing reliance on China and potentially channeling billions of dollars into local mining projects.

Japan Set for Historic Leadership Shift with Takaichi

Country: Japan, Description: Sanae Takaichi is poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister on Tuesday, following a coalition agreement between her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the right-wing Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), according to Reuters. A close ally of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi is widely expected to secure the parliamentary vote. She plans to appoint fellow Abe protégé Satsuki Katayama as finance minister, marking another milestone—Katayama would be the first woman to hold the role. Their rise signals a historic shift in Japan, where women still occupy fewer than 20% of parliamentary seats and remain underrepresented in senior corporate leadership.

Indian Net FDI Turns Negative in August

Country: India, Description: India's net foreign direct investment (FDI) turned negative in August 2025, marking the first time in the current fiscal year, due to a moderation in gross inflows and a rise in repatriation. Net FDI recorded an outflow of USD 0.62 billion, after posting an inflow of USD 5.04 billion in July, according to data from the RBI's October Bulletin released on Monday. Gross foreign direct investment into India fell to USD 6.05 billion in August, down from a more than four-year high of USD 11.11 billion in July. Meanwhile, repatriation by foreign companies jumped to USD 4.93 billion, compared to USD 3.80 billion in the previous month. Singapore, the U, Mauritius, the UAE, and the Netherlands were the top sources of FDI in April–July 2025, accounting for 76% of total inflows. The largest beneficiaries of FDI during the period were the manufacturing, computer services, business services, communication services, and electricity generation & distribution sectors.

South Korean Won Falls Amid Firm Dollar

Country: South Korea, Description: The South Korean won fell to around 1,423 per dollar on Tuesday, slipping from steady levels in the previous session as investors weighed the firm dollar against the ongoing US–Korea trade discussions. The greenback remained supported as markets looked for indications that the prolonged US government shutdown could soon end and as the tone in US–China relations improved ahead of planned high-level meetings later this month in South Korea. Meanwhile, some optimism persisted after US officials reportedly eased their demand that Seoul make its full USD 350 billion investment commitment in cash, signaling progress in the ongoing trade and investment negotiations. Seoul officials had earlier called for financial safeguards such as a currency-swap arrangement, although this has not been part of the latest talks. Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the Bank of Korea’s policy decision on Thursday for cues on interest rate direction and its assessment of external pressures on the won.

Aussie Dollar Slips Despite Trade Deal Optimism

Country: Australia, Description: The Australian dollar slipped to around $0.650 on Tuesday, breaking a two-day winning streak despite optimism over a breakthrough in the US-Australia trade agreement. The two countries recently signed a critical minerals partnership, with US President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese positioning the deal as a key step toward reducing American dependence on China. This follows Beijing’s move to tighten export controls on its own critical mineral supplies. Albanese said the agreement takes the US-Australia alliance “to the next level,” noting that while collaboration has been underway since Trump’s first term, this latest deal represents a major step forward in strengthening ties. The funding will support a portfolio of "ready-to-go" projects valued at $8.5 billion (A$13 billion), aimed at expanding Australia’s mining and processing capabilities. Domestically, investors now await flash PMI data, alongside speeches from RBA officials later this week.

Other Key Development

Interior Department plans to cut 2,000 federal jobs

Summary: The reductions would affect agencies managing public lands, environmental research, and wildlife conservation. A federal judge has temporarily blocked the layoffs., Description: The Interior Department revealed Monday it plans to eliminate more than 2,000 federal jobs across agencies managing America's public lands, environmental research, and wildlife conservation, according to court documents filed in response to a federal judge's order to disclose layoff plans during the ongoing government shutdown. The comprehensive reduction-in-force (RIF) plan targets 2,050...

GOP’s Sliwa rejects plea to exit three-way NYC mayoral race

Summary: Republican candidate rejects calls from Catsimatidis and Ackman to drop out, saying voters should decide the three-way race., Description: Republican mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa is resisting mounting pressure from powerful business figures to withdraw from New York City's three-way race, as billionaires John Catsimatidis and Bill Ackman publicly urge him to step aside with just 15 days until Election Day. Catsimatidis, who owns WABC Radio where Sliwa hosts a show, made his most direct appeal yet on Monday morning, telling...

EU approves ban on Russian gas imports by 2028

Summary: Energy ministers agreed Monday to phase out pipeline and liquefied natural gas from Russia, despite opposition from Hungary and Slovakia., Description: European Union energy ministers agreed Monday to ban all Russian gas imports by January 2028, marking a decisive step toward ending the bloc's energy dependence on Moscow nearly four years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The proposal, approved by a qualified majority at a meeting in Luxembourg, will phase out both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas imports from Russia through a gradual...

Senate rejects funding bill for 11th time

Summary: The shutdown enters its 20th day as Democrats demand ACA subsidy extensions while Republicans refuse to negotiate until government reopens., Description: The U.S. Senate on Monday failed to advance a Republican-backed funding bill for the 11th consecutive time, extending the federal government shutdown into its 20th day as Democrats and Republicans remain deadlocked over healthcare subsidies. The 50-43 vote fell short of the 60 votes needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster, marking another unsuccessful attempt to reopen the government. The...

Brazil approves Petrobras oil drilling near Amazon

Summary: Environmental agency grants controversial authorization weeks before Brazil hosts COP30 climate summit, drawing opposition from Indigenous leaders and environmental groups., Description: Brazil's environmental agency Ibama granted authorization Monday for state-owned Petrobras to begin exploratory oil drilling near the mouth of the Amazon River, a controversial decision that comes just weeks before the country hosts the COP30 climate summit in November. The approval caps a five-year battle by Petrobras to secure permission for drilling in the Foz do Amazonas basin, located...