Daily Strategic Briefing

Thursday, October 16, 2025

"Today's market activity reflects mixed signals. While major US and Indian indices show modest gains, the US government shutdown continues to weigh on economic data releases, contributing to market uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions are rising, with US-China trade relations strained. The US is considering extending import duty pauses if China halts rare-earth export controls. Tech companies are actively pursuing AI advancements: Meta is partnering with Arm to scale its AI efforts, and Anthropic released a new version of its scaled-down Haiku model. Several companies are securing funding for AI-driven solutions, including an English-speaking platform and an insurance automation firm. The US passport has fallen out of the top 10 most powerful passports globally."

  • Monitor US-China trade negotiations closely. The outcome on rare-earth controls could significantly impact supply chains and potential tariffs.
  • Assess the implications of the ongoing government shutdown on the economy. Delays in economic data releases could create volatility and impact investment decisions.
  • Evaluate the potential of AI partnerships and investments. Identify opportunities to leverage AI advancements for competitive advantage and operational efficiency.
  • Analyze the shifts in global mobility patterns. The decline in the US passport's ranking could influence international business strategies.
  • Consider the potential impact of the CFPB shutdown on financial regulations and market dynamics.

Market Dashboard

S&P 500

6,671.06 (+0.40%)

NASDAQ

22,670.08 (+0.66%)

BSE Sensex

82,904.47 (+0.36%)

NSE Nifty 50

25,425.25 (+0.40%)

VIX

20.64 (-0.82%)

Enterprise Technology News

Meta sends Arm a friend request asking for help with Nvidia’s Grace CPUs

No custom Arm CPUs to speak of yet Meta on Wednesday entered into a partnership with Arm Holdings with the aim of helping its software run more efficiently on the British chip designer's CPUs.…

Librephone battles the proprietary binary blob

Free Software Foundation project aims to reverse-engineer non-freedom respecting firmware To bridge the gap between Android distributions and true mobile phone freedom, the Free Software Foundation (FSF) has launched an initiative called Librephone.…

CISA exec blames nation-state hackers and Democrats for putting America's critical systems at risk

Federal agencies have seven days to patch F5 products An unidentified nation-state hacking crew targeting vulnerable F5 products to break into US government networks poses an "imminent risk" to federal agencies, American cyber officials warned on Wednesday – while also blaming Democrats for the ongoing government shutdown and insisting that the staffing cuts haven't hurt cyber defenses at all.…

X to combat bot problem by showing more info about users

Meet [user] from [location] In an effort to help human readers figure out whether they can trust the source of information (or opinion) posted on X, Elon Musk’s social network plans to add a new "About this account" screen with metadata from each user, including their location, how long they’ve had the account, and how many times they've changed their usernames.…

OpenAI's ChatGPT is so popular that almost no one will pay for it

If you build it, they will come and expect the service to be free OpenAI is losing about three times more money than it's earning, and 95 percent of those using ChatGPT, which generates roughly 70 percent of the company's recurring revenue, aren't paying a dime to help stem the losses.…

AI News

Eightfold co-founders raise $35M for Viven, an AI digital twin startup for querying unavailable co-workers

Summary:

Viven’s seed funding was led by Khosla Ventures and Foundation Capital.

Anthropic launches new version of scaled-down ‘Haiku’ model

Summary:

Anthropic has released Claude Haiku 4.5, the newest version of its smallest model, billed as offering similar performance to Sonnet 4 “at one-third the cost and more than twice the speed.”

Liberate bags $50M at $300M valuation to bring AI deeper into insurance back offices

Summary:

Liberate’s AI agents automate tasks for P&C insurers, working across sales, service, and claims.

Meta partners up with Arm to scale AI efforts

Summary:

Semiconductor firm Arm is partnering with Meta to enhance the social media company’s AI systems amid an unprecedented infrastructure buildout.

Nscale inks massive AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft

Summary:

Nscale plans to deploy the chips over the next few years to three data centers in Europe and a fourth in the U.S.

Funding & Startup News: India

Gen AI-driven English speaking platform SpeakX secures $16M in pre-Series B funding

The Gurugram-headquartered company’s funding round was led by WestBridge Capital, with participation from Elevation Capital and Goodwater Capital.

Chara Technologies raises Rs 52 Cr in Series A led by Arkam Ventures

The newly-raised funds will be used to set up a new manufacturing plant and to launch a new range of motor and controllers.

CIMCON Software raises Rs 52 Cr in new funding round led by Niveshaay

The newly raised funds will be used to strengthen CIMCON’s working capital base, provide support for large operations and maintenance contracts, and expand its capacity.

Cybersecurity firm Pantherun Technologies secures $12M funding for international expansion

Pantherun will expand into global markets, boost R&D for its advanced encryption technology, and launch new cross-platform security solutions for devices, cloud, and edge systems.

Rusk Media raises Rs 103 Cr in series B to expand global footprint

The company plans to use the funds to expand its content IPs and formats internationally, targeting audiences in the US, Europe, and EMEA regions.

India Market Highlights

US SEC Case on Adani Paused; Fraud Allegations Denied

US SEC’s case against Gautam Adani paused due to government shutdown. Adani Green Energy execs charged in fraud, Adani Group denies allegations. Source: Financial Express

Axis Bank Q2 Profit Falls; Asset Quality Weakens

Axis Bank's Q2 results show profits decline due to technical write-offs. Asset quality impacted negatively, as per analysis by Aditya Shah. Source: ScoutQuest

Apollo Micro Systems Gets DRDO Nod for Mechatronic Fuse Tech

Apollo Micro Systems gets DRDO approval for mechatronic fuse tech transfer. The tech transfer aims to boost military capabilities and production efficiency. Source: Livesquawk

Axis Bank Rises 4% on Q2 Beat; Target ₹1,525

Axis Bank shares gained 4% after analysts raised price targets to ₹1,525. Upgrades were driven by strong Q2 results. Source: ScoutQuest

Axis Bank Sees Margins Bottoming in Q3 FY26, Reaffirms 3.8% NIM Guidance

Axis Bank expects margins to bottom out in Q3 FY26 amidst no further rate cuts. The bank reaffirms its net interest margin guidance at 3.8%. Source: Livesquawk

Global Economic Indicators

U.S. May Extend China Duty Pause if Rare-Earth Controls Canceled

Country: United States, Description: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the U.S. might extend a pause on import duties on Chinese goods beyond the usual three months if China cancels plans for strict new export controls on rare-earth elements. “Is it possible that we could go to a longer roll in return? Perhaps. But all that’s going to be negotiated in the coming weeks,” Bessent said at a Washington press conference. The two countries have maintained a series of 90-day truces since earlier this year, with the next one due in November. After months of relative calm, tensions have risen recently as Washington expanded tech restrictions and proposed levies on Chinese ships entering U.S. ports, prompting China to respond with parallel measures and tighter controls on rare earths and other critical materials.

New Zealand Dollar Gains on Softer US Dollar

Country: New Zealand, Description: The New Zealand dollar rose for a second consecutive day to around $0.574 on Thursday, benefiting from broad weakness in the US dollar. The greenback came under pressure amid prospects of Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside intensifying US-China trade tensions and the ongoing federal government shutdown, which have heightened concerns about the US economic outlook. However, the kiwi’s upside remained limited by a dovish monetary policy outlook at home. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway reiterated on Wednesday that the central bank remains open to further policy easing, though it will wait for economic data before making a decision. Markets are currently pricing in another rate cut in November, with rates expected to fall to 2.0% by 2026. Supporting this view, the latest data showed that New Zealand’s annual food inflation eased to a five-month low of 4.1% in September from 5.0% in August.

Hong Kong Shares Muted

Country: Hong Kong, Description: Hong Kong stocks were little changed on Thursday morning trade, hovering around 25,895 after Wednesday’s rally. Financials saw modest gains, while weakness in property and tech capped broader momentum. Investors are eyeing key Chinese data next week, including September industrial output, retail sales, Q3 GDP, and the monthly loan prime rate fixing. Meantime, China’s September CPI and PPI continued to highlight persistent deflation risks. Globally, U.S. futures were subdued, as traders weighed strong earnings against rising U.S.-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a possible extension of Chinese import duty pauses if Beijing halts new rare-earth export controls. Gold-related shares advanced, led by Laopu Gold (6.2%), Zijin Gold Intl. (3.3%), and Zhijin Mining (1.9%), while Sun Hung Kai Properties (-3.0%), Xiaomi (-2.8%), and XPeng (-2.6%) dragged the market lower.

US 10-Year Yield Holds Near 6-Month Low

Country: United States, Description: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.02% on Thursday, hovering near its lowest levels since April amid pressure from escalating US-China trade tensions, the ongoing US government shutdown and bets on further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. President Donald Trump confirmed that the US is currently engaged in a sustained trade war with China, though Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted the trade truce could be extended beyond three months if Beijing halts plans for new export controls on rare earth minerals. Meanwhile, the government shutdown entered its third week, delaying key economic data releases that could guide monetary policy. Fed Chair Powell recently pointed to signs of a cooling labor market, reinforcing bets on a rate cut this month, another in December, and potentially three more next year.

China Stocks Gain for Second Session

Country: China, Description: The Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% to above 3,920, while the Shenzhen Component added 0.1% to 13,130 on Thursday, marking a second straight session of gains amid bets that Beijing would introduce new stimulus to combat deflationary pressures and the impact of higher US tariffs. Premier Li Qiang urged stronger policy efforts to spur consumption and curb unfair market practices. Still, sentiment was tempered by escalating US-China trade tensions as President Donald Trump confirmed the two nations are currently engaged in a sustained trade war. However, US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested the current trade truce could be extended beyond three months if China suspends plans for strict new export controls on rare earth minerals. Tech shares led the advance, with notable gains in ZTE Corp (6%), Zhongji Innolight (4.7%), and Cambricon Technologies (3.5%).

Other Key Development

Shutdown delays Social Security COLA, threatens SNAP aid

Summary: Benefit adjustments for 75 million beneficiaries postponed to October 24, while 42 million Americans face potential food assistance shortfalls in November., Description: The federal government shutdown, now in its 15th day, is disrupting critical benefit programs and threatening food and energy assistance for millions of low-income Americans as lawmakers remain deadlocked over funding legislation. The Social Security Administration announced Tuesday that the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment for 75 million beneficiaries will be delayed from today's scheduled...

NTSB blames OceanGate engineering for Titan implosion

Summary: Flawed carbon-fiber hull with multiple defects failed during dive 88, killing all five aboard in the 2023 Titanic expedition disaster., Description: The National Transportation Safety Board on Wednesday issued its final report on the 2023 Titan submersible disaster, concluding that OceanGate’s “inadequate engineering process” and insufficient testing produced a carbon-fiber pressure hull with multiple defects that did not meet required strength and durability standards, leading to a catastrophic implosion that killed all five aboard during a...

US passport drops out of top 10 for first time in 20 years

Summary: The American passport fell to 12th place on the Henley Passport Index, driven by access changes from Brazil, China and Vietnam., Description: For the first time in 20 years, the United States passport has fallen out of the top 10 most powerful passports globally, dropping to 12th place in the Henley Passport Index. The American passport, once ranked first in 2014, now sits tied with Malaysia with visa-free access to 180 of 227 destinations worldwide. The decline marks a historic shift in global mobility patterns, with Asian nations...

White House plans to shut down CFPB within months

Summary: Budget Director Russell Vought says the agency has been weaponized against small lenders, though it has returned over $20 billion to consumers., Description: White House Budget Director Russell Vought announced plans Wednesday to completely close the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau within the next two to three months, claiming the agency is failing to protect consumers and has been weaponized against small lenders. The announcement came during Vought's appearance on "The Charlie Kirk Show" broadcast from the White House, just hours before a...

Global survey finds more concern than excitement about AI

Summary: Study across 25 countries shows 34% of adults are more worried than thrilled about artificial intelligence, while only 16% express greater excitement., Description: A sweeping new survey across 25 countries reveals that while most adults worldwide are aware of artificial intelligence, they harbor significantly more concerns than excitement about its growing role in daily life, according to research released today by the Pew Research Center. The study, conducted from January through April 2025 and spanning regions from Europe to sub-Saharan Africa, found...