Daily Strategic Briefing

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

"The day's developments signal a period of both market uncertainty and significant strategic shifts within the tech and AI sectors. While US markets showed resilience, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ up, the VIX saw a considerable jump, indicating increased volatility. This backdrop of uncertainty is compounded by the looming threat of a government shutdown in the US, which could delay critical economic data releases, impacting market sentiment further. Parallel to this, the AI landscape is experiencing rapid advancements and increased scrutiny. California passed a landmark AI safety bill, while OpenAI launched a new agentic shopping system, directly challenging Google and Amazon. Simultaneously, new funding rounds and model releases from companies like DeepSeek and Alex demonstrate continued investment and innovation in the AI space. However, this progress is not without its challenges, as evidenced by concerns over data privacy, exemplified by the Whitebridge AI complaint and increasing regulatory actions. Global economic dynamics are also shifting, with China injecting significant funds to boost investment, while Hong Kong markets face profit-taking pressure before a holiday. Finally, geopolitical tensions are visible in the Justice Department's lawsuit against Minnesota over sanctuary policies and the Taliban's internet blackout in Afghanistan."

  • Monitor the impact of the US government shutdown on market volatility and investment strategies, and adjust risk profiles accordingly.
  • Assess the competitive implications of OpenAI's new agentic shopping system and its potential disruption to e-commerce and search, and formulate a response strategy.
  • Evaluate the implications of California's AI safety bill and other emerging regulations on our AI initiatives and compliance measures.
  • Consider opportunities for investment in AI-driven startups, given the continued funding activity and innovation in the sector.
  • Analyze the impact of China's economic stimulus measures and the evolving geopolitical landscape on international market strategies and potential risks.

Market Dashboard

S&P 500

6,661.21 (+0.26%)

NASDAQ

22,591.15 (+0.48%)

BSE Sensex

80,615.61 (+0.31%)

NSE Nifty 50

24,666.30 (+0.13%)

VIX

16.12 (+5.43%)

Enterprise Technology News

YouTube coughs up $24.5 million to make Trump 'censorship' case go away

Alphabet's vid-streamer will fund construction of a ballroom The Donald adores YouTube has agreed to pay $24.5 million to end the case brought by US president Donald Trump, who alleged the vid-streamer had infringed his freedom of speech.…

Feds cut funding to program that shared cyber threat info with local governments

The federal government's not the only thing shutting down on Oct. 1 The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) on Tuesday will cut its ties to - and funding for -  the Center for Internet Security, a nonprofit that provides free and low-cost cybersecurity services to state and local governments.…

California cops confused after trying to give ticket to self-driving car

Don't tell Elon, he'd have Tesla's Robotaxis going ludicrous speed Police in a Silicon Valley suburb were flummoxed last weekend after pulling over a self-driving Waymo robo-taxi for making an illegal turn, then finding no driver they could issue with a ticket.…

Whitebridge AI created false and alarming reputation reports, complaint alleges

Privacy group Noyb wants Lithuania to throw the GDPR book at 'em Whitebridge AI, based in Lithuania, faces a privacy complaint for allegedly selling "reputation reports" based on unlawfully collected data and AI misinformation.…

Your AI conversations are a secret new treasure trove for marketers

And they may not be seeking proper consent ai-pocalypse  Profound is a startup that promises to help companies understand how they appear in AI responses to customer queries. But one expert in the field thinks the AI analytics startup has been sucking up information on users' AI conversations without proper consent.…

AI News

California Governor Newsom signs landmark AI safety bill SB 53

Summary:

SB 53 requires large AI labs – including OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Google DeepMind – to be transparent about safety protocols. It also ensures whistleblower protections for employees at those companies.  

DeepSeek: Everything you need to know about the AI chatbot app

Summary:

DeepSeek is backed by High-Flyer Capital Management, a Chinese quantitative hedge fund that uses AI to inform its trading decisions.

AI recruiter Alex raises $17M to automate initial job interviews

Summary:

The Y Combinator startup raised a Series A led by Peak XV Partners.

DeepSeek releases ‘sparse attention’ model that cuts API costs in half

Summary:

Researchers at DeepSeek released a new experimental model designed to have dramatically lower inference costs when used in long-context operations.

OpenAI takes on Google, Amazon with new agentic shopping system

Summary:

This type of frictionless experience has the potential to spark a new movement in how people shop online – one that moves away from search engines like Google and e-commerce platforms like Amazon toward conversational agents with curated recommendations, comparisons, and easy checkout experiences. 

Funding & Startup News: India

Hocco secures Rs 115 Cr in funding at Rs 2,000 Cr valuation led by Sauce.VC

Since its launch less than two years ago, Hocco has expanded quickly, gaining traction through product innovation, quality, and a modern approach to distribution.

Kapiva raises $60M in Series D round led by 360 ONE Asset and Vertex Growth

Kapiva, a healthcare brand focused on Ayurveda-based products, has raised $60 million in a Series D funding round. The round included $28 million in primary capital and was led by 360 ONE Asset and Vertex Growth, with participation from existing investors Vertex Ventures Southeast Asia and India an

Good Capital raises $30M in final close of second fund to back AI-driven startups

The firm will look to write cheques to new-age and technology-first startups with a focus on artificial intelligence-driven firms.

Peak XV leads YC-backed PostHog’s $75M Series E round at unicorn valuation

The India-based venture capital firm has, in recent months, backed a series of YC-backed startups as it looks to step up investments beyond India.

Handpickd raises $15M in Series A round led by Bertelsmann India Investments

The fresh produce delivery startup plans to use the funds to expand to more cities, hire talent, and improve its supply chain technology.

India Market Highlights

Man Industries Jumps 14%, Volume Spikes 6.4x Avg

Man Industries' trading volume surged 6.4x 2-week avg, with 25L shares traded. Stock traded at Rs 350.3, up 13.9%, with Rs 89 Cr value on NSE. Source: ScoutQuest

Anant Raj Gains 1% on Positive Brokerage Call

Anant Raj shares rose over 1% on a positive brokerage report. Source: ScoutQuest

Anand Rathi IPO Debuts on Dalal St

Anand Rathi IPO lists on Dalal Street, marking its debut. Source: ScoutQuest

Ashoka Buildcon Sells 5 SPVs for ₹1,146 Cr; 6 More Sales Pending

Ashoka Buildcon sold 100% stakes in 5 SPVs for Rs.1,146 Cr to an infra fund. Sold SPVs contributed 4% turnover and net worth last fiscal; 6 SPVs sale pending. Source: ScoutQuest

Morgan Stanley Sets ₹2,600 Target on Kotak, Reiterates 'Overweight'

Morgan Stanley is bullish on Kotak Mahindra Bank, citing strong loan growth potential and improving macro conditions. Morgan Stanley reiterated an 'Overweight' rating with a Rs 2,600 target, highlighting Kotak's profitability and diversified loan portfolio. Source: NDTV Profit

Global Economic Indicators

Taiwan Consumer Mood Rises to 4-Month High

Country: Taiwan, Description: Taiwan’s consumer confidence index rose to 64.69 in September 2025, up from 63.31 in August, which was the lowest level since April 2023. It marked the highest reading since May, driven by a sharp improvement in perceptions of the timing for stock investment (51.68 vs 31.20 in August). However, other sub-indexes weakened: expectations for durable goods purchases fell to 90.70 from 94.53, price level outlook declined to 29.95 from 30.72, household financial conditions dropped to 72.54 from 75.15, domestic economic outlook slipped to 76.18 from 79.17, and employment opportunities eased to 67.07 from 69.12.

Hong Kong Shares Ease Ahead of Holiday

Country: Hong Kong, Description: Stocks in Hong Kong edged lower, hovering around 26,614 in Tuesday morning trade, weighed mainly by losses in the financial sector. Markets reversed a near 2% rally from the prior session, with some traders booking profits ahead of Wednesday’s holiday. In China, a week-long National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival break will run from Oct. 1–8, with activity resuming on Oct. 9. Among major laggards were Sands China (-3.2%), MGM China Hlds. (-3.1%), and China Unicom (-1.9%). Still, the Hang Seng is on track to log the fifth straight monthly gains, up around 6% so far, boosted by AI optimism, strong inflows, and hopes of new support measures in China ahead of the October plenum. Meantime, September PMI data showed that a private survey for manufacturing outperformed the official release, while growth in services activity remained positive despite softening. On the policy front, Beijing prepares to deploy CNY 500 billion via policy-based financial tools to speed up investment projects.

Japan 10-Year Yield Slips as BOJ Outlook Weighed

Country: Japan, Description: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.63% on Tuesday, marking an over one-week low as investors weighed mixed signals from the Bank of Japan. The Summary of Opinions from the September meeting showed some policymakers backed further rate hikes if growth and inflation forecasts hold, while others favored keeping rates low to support the economy amid the drag from US tariffs. One member called for a wait-and-see stance, highlighting uncertainty around global trade policy, US monetary settings, currency moves and domestic wages and prices. Another said it may be time to consider another hike, noting it has been more than six months since the last adjustment. On the data front, Japan’s retail sales fell 1.1% in August, missing expectations of a 1% increase and recording the first drop since February 2022, while industrial output also declined more than anticipated.

China Unveils USD 70 Billion Policy Tool to Boost Investment

Country: China, Description: China will introduce a new policy-based financial instrument worth CNY 500 billion (USD 70.3 billion) as part of efforts to improve financial services for the real economy and boost effective investment, a spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday, according to Xinhua. The funds will be used to replenish project capital, NDRC spokesperson Li Chao told a press conference. The NDRC is working with relevant parties to swiftly channel the funds to specific projects and will urge local governments to accelerate project construction, thereby bolstering stable and sound economic growth, Li added. Recent data showed China’s economic activity slumped in August, with industrial output growing at its slowest pace since August 2024. Meanwhile, retail sales growth eased for the third consecutive month, marking the softest expansion in nine months.

US 10-Year Yield Holds Steady

Country: United States, Description: The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note hovered around 4.14% on Tuesday after declining for two straight sessions, as the risk of a federal government shutdown looms with the Oct. 1 funding deadline nearing, potentially delaying key economic data releases. The standoff comes as President Donald Trump has made little progress in reaching a temporary spending deal with opponents. Attention now shifts to September’s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for labor market insights, alongside job openings, private payrolls and the ISM manufacturing PMI. On Monday, New York Fed President John Williams said early signs of labor market softness supported his vote for a rate cut at the last meeting. Markets are currently pricing in another quarter-point cut in October and about 42 basis points of easing by year-end.

Other Key Development

Boeing begins early development of 737 MAX replacement

Summary: CEO Kelly Ortberg has held preliminary talks with Rolls-Royce about engines as Boeing seeks to regain ground lost to Airbus., Description: Boeing has quietly begun early-stage development of a replacement for its troubled 737 MAX aircraft, marking a significant strategic shift as the aerospace giant seeks to regain ground lost to European rival Airbus, according to multiple reports published Monday citing sources familiar with the matter. Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg, who assumed leadership in August 2024, has already engaged in...

Justice Department sues Minnesota over sanctuary policies

Summary: Attorney General Bondi alleges state and local officials violate federal law by obstructing immigration enforcement operations., Description: The U.S. Justice Department filed a federal lawsuit against Minnesota on Monday, escalating the Trump administration's legal campaign against sanctuary immigration policies in Democratic-led jurisdictions. Attorney General Pamela Bondi accused state and local officials of "jeopardizing the safety of their own citizens by allowing illegal aliens to circumvent the legal process." The lawsuit...

Taliban cuts Afghanistan's internet in nationwide blackout

Summary: Connectivity dropped below 1% of normal levels, paralyzing banking, customs and services while cutting women's access to education and work., Description: Afghanistan plunged into a nationwide communications blackout on Monday as Taliban authorities severed fiber-optic internet connections across the country, leaving millions disconnected from the outside world in what cybersecurity watchdog NetBlocks called a "total blackout." The shutdown reduced national connectivity to below 1% of ordinary levels, marking the first complete internet disruption...

Stocks climb as government shutdown threat looms

Summary: Tech stocks led gains with Nvidia up 2.1%, while potential data delays could complicate Fed policy decisions., Description: US stock markets closed higher on Monday despite mounting concerns over a potential government shutdown that could delay the release of critical economic data, including Friday's highly anticipated jobs report. The S&P 500 gained 0.3% to close at 6,661, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.5% to 22,591, led by technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed mixed performance, ending...

Judge blocks Trump plan to cut 532 Voice of America jobs

Summary: Federal judge accuses administration of "concerning disrespect" and "obfuscation" while preserving workforce at government-funded broadcaster., Description: A federal judge delivered a sharp rebuke to the Trump administration Monday, temporarily blocking plans to eliminate 532 jobs at Voice of America that were set to begin Tuesday, while criticizing officials for showing "concerning disrespect" toward the court. U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth in Washington, D.C., ruled that the U.S. Agency for Global Media cannot proceed with the mass layoffs,...