Daily Strategic BriefingFriday, August 29, 2025 |
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"The day's developments reveal a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, technological shifts, and market dynamics. Geopolitically, the US has approved a significant arms deal for Ukraine amidst ongoing conflict, and rising trade tensions between the US and India are flagged as a risk by the RBI. Furthermore, South Korea is launching a record budget for tech and defense. On the tech front, Microsoft is intensifying its focus on in-house AI models to reduce reliance on OpenAI. At the same time, Anthropic is changing its data usage policy, requiring users to actively opt-out of data sharing for AI training. In the markets, global equities show mixed performance. The offshore yuan is weakening, while the Indian economy remains resilient with some expected slowing GDP growth. Silver is set for gains, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of Fed rate cuts. The cost of operations and geopolitical friction are starting to surface, with Ryanair cutting seats from Spanish airports due to increased fees, and the US deal with Intel structured to retain control of its foundry unit. Finally, SpaceX has achieved significant milestones with its Starship program, while the research indicates an inevitable shutdown of the Gulf Stream after 2100."
Market Dashboard
Enterprise Technology NewsFBI cyber cop: Salt Typhoon pwned 'nearly every American'Plus millions of other people across 80+ countries China's Salt Typhoon cyberspies hoovered up information belonging to millions of people in the United States over the course of the years-long intrusion into telecommunications networks, according to a top FBI cyber official.… Older developers are down with the vibe coding vibeThey use AI more but also check it more For those who thought AI vibe coding was just for the youngsters, newly published research shows that developers with over 10 years of experience are more than twice as likely to do it.… Microsoft unveils home-made ML models amid OpenAI negotiationsMicrosoft AI honcho insists partnership with Sam Altman's brainbox behemoth is alive and well Microsoft has introduced two home-grown machine learning models, potentially complicating negotiations with its current favored model supplier, OpenAI.… Five years – that's how long Anthropic will store Claude chats unless you opt outMy brain hurts a lot Claude creator Anthropic has given customers using its Free, Pro, and Max plans one month to prevent the engine from storing their chats for five years by default and using them for training.… DOGE delayed deals, says NutanixBut private cloud contender sees upside in its modernization mission Donald Trump's DOGE cost-cutting unit has made it harder to do business with the US federal government, according to private cloud contender Nutanix.… AI NewsTrump administration’s deal is structured to prevent Intel from selling foundry unitSummary: The deal allows the U.S. to take more equity in Intel if the company doesn’t retain at least 51% ownership in its foundry business. Anthropic users face a new choice – opt out or share your chats for AI trainingSummary: Anthropic is making some major changes to how it handles user data. Users have until September 28 to take action. AI or not, Will Smith’s crowd video is fresh cringeSummary: Fans accused Will Smith of sharing AI-generated videos from his tour, but the situation is more complicated than it seems. MathGPT.ai, the ‘cheat-proof’ tutor and teaching assistant, expands to over 50 institutionsSummary: Schools implementing MathGPT.ai in their classrooms include Penn State University, Tufts University, and Liberty University, among others. Investors are loving LovableSummary: Investors are clamoring to get onto Swedish vibe-coding startup Lovable’s cap table, making unsolicited offers of investment that value the company at more than $4 billion. Funding & Startup News: IndiaTransBnk raises $25M from Bessemer, 8i, Accion and othersThe Mumbai-based company said it will use the fresh capital to expand internationally and strengthen its technology and product teams. CredRight raises $10M in Series B funding from Abler Nordic, Michael & Susan Dell FoundationCredRight said it will use the capital to expand its loan book, upgrade its technology platform, and extend its reach across Tier II to Tier IV towns. NBEC 2025 awards Rs 40 Cr in funding to biotech startupsProjects spanned multiple focus areas, including artificial intelligence-driven drug discovery, carbon capture technologies, biomaterial-based degradable batteries, and neonatal healthcare devices. Motilal Oswal Alternates raises $800M in first close of fifth PE FundThe firm said that Fund V will primarily target mid-market investments of $40 million to $80 million across consumer, financial services, healthcare, technology-led businesses, and niche manufacturing. Baby care quick commerce startup Peeko raises $3.2M led by Stellaris Venture PartnersBengaluru startup Peeko bets on curated supply, AI-driven recommendations, and under-60-minute delivery to ease shopping woes for young parents. Global Economic IndicatorsSouth Korea Launches Record 2026 Budget for Tech and Defense GrowthCountry: South Korea, Description: South Korea unveiled a record KRW 728 trillion budget plan for 2026, marking an 8.1% increase from this year, more than triple the pace of 2025’s rise. The expansion, aimed at reviving an economy strained by U.S. tariffs, rising welfare costs, and demographic pressures, will be financed partly through a record KRW 232 trillion bond issuance, the finance ministry noted. President Lee Jae Myung’s government said the spending will drive an “economic transformation,” channeling support into AI, semiconductors, shipbuilding, and K-culture, while fostering small businesses and regional growth. Defense outlays will climb 8.3% to KRW 66.3 trillion, funding advanced weapons, drones, and responses to North Korean threats. While President Trump has pressed U.S. allies to raise defense spending, officials said talks with Washington are ongoing, noting the increase would bring defense spending to about 2.4% of GDP. Australia 10-Year Yield SteadiesCountry: Australia, Description: Australia’s 10-year government bond yield steadied at 4.29% on Friday after falling in the previous session, as investors continued to assess the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy outlook. Earlier in the week, data showed that consumer prices in July jumped by more than expected, dampening hopes for an imminent rate cut next month. Markets are now pricing in only around 34bps of additional easing for the remainder of 2025. The inflation figures came a day after the release of the RBA’s latest meeting minutes, which reiterated the central bank’s openness to further interest rate cuts, provided inflation continued to ease in line with its forecasts. Attention will now shift to next week’s second-quarter GDP report, which will provide further insights on the strength of the economy and may influence the RBA’s next moves. On the global front, investors are now awaiting the release of the US PCE price index later in the day for more cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Silver Set for Solid Monthly GainCountry: Commodity, Description: Silver traded around $38.8 per ounce on Friday and was on track to gani about 6% in August, supported by a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields as investors ramped up bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday he favors starting rate reductions next month and “fully expects” further cuts to bring policy closer to a neutral level. Markets are now pricing in an 86% chance of a 25 basis-point cut in September, with another move anticipated before year-end. Investors are also awaiting the latest US PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for additional policy guidance. On the industrial side, silver demand gained support from strong data in China’s photovoltaic sector. Recent figures showed Chinese solar cell exports surged more than 70% in the first half of the year, driven by robust demand from India. Offshore Yuan Retreats, Still Poised for Monthly GainsCountry: China, Description: The offshore yuan weakened to around 7.12 per dollar on Friday, retreating from a more than nine-month high reached in the prior session and snapping a five-day winning streak. Despite the pullback, the yuan remains on track for significant monthly gains, reaching its strongest level since November. This strength is supported by signals from the People’s Bank of China, indicating a shift in currency strategy amid improving trade conditions that have brightened the country's economic outlook. This week, the PBOC raised its daily reference rate by 0.4%—its largest adjustment since September 2024—and set the fixing at 7.1030 per dollar today, marking the strongest guidance since November. This development marks a departure from the PBOC's previously cautious stance, in which it prioritized currency stability in response to economic uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly during the earlier stages of the US-China trade conflict. Indian Economy Steady, But US Trade Tensions Pose Risks: RBICountry: India, Description: The Indian economy remains resilient, supported by strong rural demand, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its monthly bulletin released on Thursday. However, the RBI cautioned that rising trade tensions with the US could pose a downside risk to growth. Meanwhile, average inflation remains below the RBI’s target of 4% for the current financial year. “Monetary policy, going forward, will continue to maintain a close vigil on incoming data and the evolving domestic growth-inflation dynamics to chart out the appropriate monetary policy path,” the RBI said. The central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.50% in August. Separately, a Reuters poll showed that India’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 6.7% yoy in April-June, down from 7.4% in the prior quarter. The RBI projects full-year growth to remain close to 6.5%, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra stating that the impact of higher tariffs is expected to be minimal. Official GDP data is scheduled to be released later today. Other Key DevelopmentCritical ocean current faces inevitable shutdown after 2100Summary: The Gulf Stream system will collapse under high emissions, triggering severe global climate disruption including European cooling and sea level rise., Description: New research reveals the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the vital ocean current system that includes the Gulf Stream, faces an inevitable shutdown after 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions remain on their current high trajectory. The study, published in Environmental Research Letters with contributions from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, extends climate projections... SpaceX achieves back-to-back milestones with Starship successSummary: The company completed its 10th Starship test flight and set a Falcon 9 reuse record, marking a turnaround after earlier setbacks., Description: SpaceX achieved two major milestones this week, successfully completing its 10th Starship test flight on Tuesday and setting a new reuse record with its Falcon 9 rocket early Thursday morning. The developments represent a comeback for the company after a series of setbacks earlier this year and position SpaceX closer to its ambitious goals of returning astronauts to the moon and eventually... Ryanair slashes 1M seats from Spanish airports over feesSummary: The budget airline cut capacity after Aena raised airport charges 6.5%, deepening isolation for Spain's regional airports., Description: Ryanair is slashing nearly one million seats from its winter schedule for Spanish regional airports in direct response to Aena's decision to raise airport charges by 6.5% starting in March 2026. The Irish budget carrier announced the dramatic capacity cut on August 27, marking a significant escalation in its ongoing dispute with Spain's state-controlled airport operator over what it calls... Trump approves $825M Ukraine arms deal after Kyiv attackSummary: The package includes 3,350 long-range missiles funded by NATO allies following Russia's devastating strike that killed 21 people in the capital., Description: The Trump administration has approved an $825 million arms package for Ukraine, marking the first major new weapons sale to Kyiv under the current presidency. The State Department greenlit the sale of 3,350 Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM) missiles, with funding primarily provided by NATO allies Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway, alongside U.S. Foreign Military Financing. The... Microsoft launches first AI models to reduce OpenAI relianceSummary: The tech giant unveiled MAI-Voice-1 and MAI-1-preview models, marking a strategic shift toward AI independence after its $13 billion OpenAI investment., Description: Microsoft launched its first internally developed AI models on Thursday, marking a significant shift as the tech giant moves to reduce its dependence on OpenAI and intensifies competition in the artificial intelligence market. The announcement by Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman establishes the company as a direct competitor to its longtime partner OpenAI as well as other industry leaders. The... |
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