Daily Strategic Briefing

Friday, August 22, 2025

"Today's landscape reveals a complex interplay of technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and market volatility. The stock market shows mixed signals with the VIX up, hinting at rising uncertainty. Economic indicators from India show positive growth, balanced by global trade tensions and concerns in the mining and manufacturing sectors. In the tech sphere, AI continues to be a focal point, with Google expanding its AI Mode and Meta pausing AI hiring following a significant poaching period. Concurrently, Microsoft is tightening security, limiting China's access to vulnerability information, while China may be on the cusp of new chip technology. Geopolitically, the US Space Force launched a mission with advanced quantum navigation tech, and Ukraine is rapidly developing military technology, while tensions remain high. The financial sector is experiencing shifts, including an increased focus on retail loans in India. These developments indicate a rapidly changing global environment."

  • Assess the implications of increasing geopolitical tensions and the implications for technology supply chains and market access.
  • Evaluate the competitive landscape in AI, considering Google's expansion, Meta's strategic adjustments, and the potential rise of new AI chip technology from China.
  • Analyze the potential risks and opportunities presented by the rapid technological advancements in defense, particularly the development of new missile technologies.
  • Monitor the financial markets for further volatility, particularly the impact of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and rising interest rates in Japan.
  • Consider investment strategies to capitalize on the projected GDP growth and focus on the financial services sector.

Market Dashboard

S&P 500

6,370.17 (-0.40%)

NASDAQ

21,100.31 (-0.34%)

BSE Sensex

81,887.19 (-0.14%)

NSE Nifty 50

24,979.50 (-0.42%)

VIX

16.60 (+5.80%)

Enterprise Technology News

Bank reverses decision to replace 45 customer service staff with AI chatbot

Also fired another AI - GitHub Copilot - after it produced ‘mixed results in utilisation and efficacy’ Australia’s Commonwealth Bank has decided not to fire 45 workers it planned to replace with an AI chatbot.…

DeepSeek's new V3.1 release points to potent new Chinese chips coming soon

Point release retuned with new FP8 datatype for better compatibility with homegrown silicon Chinese AI darling DeepSeek unveiled an update to its flagship large language model that the company claims is already optimized for use with a new generation of homegrown silicon.…

Developer jailed for taking down employer's network with kill switch malware

Pro tip: When taking revenge, don't use your real name A US court sentenced a former developer at power management biz Eaton to four years in prison after he installed malware on the company’s servers.…

Anthropic scanning Claude chats for queries about DIY nukes for some reason

Because savvy terrorists always use public internet services to plan their mischief, right? Anthropic says it has scanned an undisclosed portion of conversations with its Claude AI model to catch concerning inquiries about nuclear weapons.…

Microsoft reportedly cuts China's early access to bug disclosures, PoC exploit code

Better late than never after SharePoint assault? Microsoft has reportedly stopped giving Chinese companies proof-of-concept exploit code for soon-to-be-disclosed vulnerabilities following last month's SharePoint zero-day attacks, which appear to be related to a leak in Redmond's early-bug-notification program.…

AI News

OpenAI lawyers question Meta’s role in Elon Musk’s $97B takeover bid 

Summary:

OpenAI says that Elon Musk met with Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg to discuss a $97 billion takeover bid of the ChatGPT-maker.

Microsoft AI chief says it’s ‘dangerous’ to study AI consciousness

Summary:

As AI chatbots surge in popularity, Mustafa Suleyman argues that it’s dangerous to consider how these systems could be conscious.

Google’s AI Mode expands globally, adds new agentic features

Summary:

As part of the expansion, Google is bringing AI Mode to 180 new countries in English.

Report: Meta is hitting pause on AI hiring after its poaching spree

Summary:

The freeze went into effect last week, and it’s not clear how long it will last, The Journal’s sources say. Meta is still likely working through its reorg, which split its AI unit, Meta Superintelligence Labs, into four new groups: TBD Labs, run by former Scale AI founder Alexandr Wang, and three groups focused on research, product integration, and infrastructure, respectively. 

Anthropic bundles Claude Code into enterprise plans

Summary:

The integration positions Anthropic to better compete with command-line tools from Google and GitHub, both of which included enterprise integrations on launch.

Funding & Startup News: India

Nikhil Kamath backs Goldi Solar with Rs 137 Cr investment

Zerodha’s Nikhil Kamath bets Rs 137.5 crore on Goldi Solar to power India’s clean energy push with new solar cell capacity and expanded module production.

Brandworks Technologies raises $7M in round led by Catcus Partners

The electronics design-led manufacturing company will use the newly raised funds to fuel R&D, enter global markets, and scale-up manufacturing.

Motilal Oswal Alternates raises $800M in first close of fifth PE Fund

The firm said that Fund V will primarily target mid-market investments of $40 million to $80 million across consumer, financial services, healthcare, technology-led businesses, and niche manufacturing.

Boundless Ventures launches Rs 200 Cr fund to invest in Indian AI startups

Boundless Ventures' new fund will invest at the seed and pre-seed stages, and has already invested in six startups.

AI startup Refold AI scores $6.5M funding led by Eniac Ventures, Tidal Ventures

The San Mateo- and Bangalore-based firm plans to use the fresh funds to expand its 20-member engineering team, deepen product integrations, and support its enterprise client base.

India Market Highlights

RBL Bank Eyes 60% Retail Loans via Tier-3/4 Expansion

RBL Bank targets 60% retail secured loans by expanding in Tier-3/4 cities. The bank focuses on MSME loans, vehicle finance, and digitized processes for growth. Source: The Economic Times

R Systems Jumps 10% on Novigo Buy

R Systems surges over 10% post Novigo Solutions acquisition. Source: ScoutQuest

India's Q1 FY26 GDP Growth at 6.7% on Strong Capex, Services

India's Q1 FY26 GDP growth is projected at 6.7%, driven by strong government capex, rural demand, and buoyant services. Weak mining, manufacturing sectors and global trade tensions weighed on growth; GST reforms expected to boost FY26 GDP. Source: The Economic Times

Centrum to Sell CHFL Stake for ₹430 Cr to Premji-Backed Weaver

Centrum Capital plans to sell its entire stake in CHFL for Rs. 430 crore. CHFL contributes 6.1% to Centrum's turnover; buyer is Weaver Services, backed by Premji Invest. Source: ScoutQuest

Vedanta May Stay Flat Amid Demerger Worries: Citi

Citi forecasts Vedanta shares may remain rangebound over demerger concerns. Source: ScoutQuest

Global Economic Indicators

Japan to Raise Assumed Bond Interest Rate to 2.6% for FY 2026/27

Country: Japan, Description: Japan’s Ministry of Finance is preparing to raise its assumed interest rate for long-term government bonds to 2.6% in its fiscal 2026/27 budget requests, marking the highest level in 17 years, Reuters reported, citing the Yomiuri Shimbun on Friday. The assumed bond interest rate was previously set at 2.1% during the fiscal 2025 budget request phase, before being revised down to 2.0% in the final budget. The planned increase is expected to lead to higher debt servicing costs, the report said, without naming sources. Separately, the finance ministry is expected to allocate around 30 trillion yen (approximately $202 billion) for debt servicing in its fiscal 2026/27 budget request, Kyodo News reported. This would mark a record high, driven by rising long-term interest rates, the report added. Annual budget requests for the fiscal year beginning April 2026 are due to be submitted to the Ministry of Finance by the end of August.

Indian Rupee Holds Decline

Country: India, Description: The Indian rupee held its recent decline to around 87.26 per USD on Friday, pressured by a stronger greenback as markets geared up for the much-anticipated speech from Fed Reserve Chair Powell. The address at the Jackson Hole Symposium is expected to offer clues on the interest rate trajectory in the world’s largest economy. Earlier, weaker jobs data had fueled hopes for aggressive cuts, but cautious Fed remarks and persistent inflation risks have since left market pricing in a smaller September move. The rupee also faced late-session dollar demand from oil importers in the prior session, though foreign bank sales and debt inflows limited the losses. Consistent foreign bank selling, proposed Indian tax cuts, and US President Trump’s talks with Russian and Ukrainian leaders also cushioned some pressure. However, looming US tariffs on Indian goods and criticism over Russian oil purchases kept sentiment weak, with analysts expecting continued downside risk for the rupee through September.

Australia 10-Year Yield Holds Above 4.3%

Country: Australia, Description: Australia’s 10-year government bond yield steadied at 4.31% on Friday, after rising 4 points in the previous session on the back of strong flash PMI data. Australia's private sector activity expanded at the fastest pace since April 2022, with the composite PMI rising to 54.9 in August (vs 53.8 in July), driven by robust growth in both manufacturing (52.9 vs. 51.3) and services (55.1 vs. 54.1) sectors. On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of Australia slashed its cash rate to 3.60% last week and left the door open to two or more easing if inflation continues to cool in line with forecasts. Markets remain almost fully priced for the central bank to deliver another 25bps rate cut in November. On the global front, all eyes are now on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium later today for further clues on the US policy outlook.

Hong Kong Shares Rise But Head for Weekly Drop

Country: Hong Kong, Description: Hong Kong stocks increased 89 points or 0.3 to 25,191 in early trade on Friday, supported by gains across most sectors. The market recovered from the prior session’s losses despite overnight weakness on Wall Street, as investors cautiously awaited Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Sentiment also improved on hopes of fresh stimulus from Beijing after China’s economy slowed in July. Starting in September, the Chinese government will launch a one-year consumer loan subsidy, covering 90% of interest costs, with local authorities funding the rest. Locally, Hong Kong’s annual inflation hit a 4-year low of 1.0% in July, marking a third month of slowdown. SMIC gained 5.9%, followed by Wuxi Biologics (2.9%), Kuaishou Tech. (2.8%), and Xiaomi Corp. (2.0%). However, the Hang Seng is set for its first weekly loss in three, down about 0.4% so far, due to a rising jobless rate in Hong Kong that climbed to 3.7% in the three months through July, the highest in 2-1/2 years.

Silver Holds Steady Ahead of Powell Remarks

Country: Commodity, Description: Silver held firm above $38 per ounce on Friday after two consecutive sessions of gains, as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for signals on the interest rate outlook. Markets remain cautious that Powell could push back against expectations for a near-term rate cut. Futures currently imply about a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, down from more than 90% a week earlier. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid argued that “modestly restrictive” monetary policy is still appropriate given inflation risks, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated her opposition to cutting rates at this stage. Silver has also shown resilience in recent sessions, diverging from gold by holding firm despite weakness in the yellow metal and strength in the US dollar.

Other Key Development

Space Force launches X-37B with quantum navigation tech

Summary: The secretive spaceplane carries the world's highest performing quantum inertial sensor, offering GPS alternatives for contested environments., Description: The U.S. Space Force launched its secretive X-37B spaceplane late Thursday night aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, marking the eighth mission for the Boeing-built orbital test vehicle and its first deployment of quantum navigation technology in space. The spacecraft lifted off at 11:50 p.m. EDT from Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The mission, designated USSF-36, carries...

Trump suspends worker visas for truck drivers after fatal crash

Summary: The decision came after a deadly Florida highway collision involving a driver who entered the U.S. illegally and failed English proficiency tests., Description: The Trump administration immediately suspended all worker visas for commercial truck drivers on Thursday following a deadly highway crash in Florida that killed three people, marking the latest escalation in the administration's immigration crackdown. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the freeze on X, stating that "the increasing number of foreign drivers operating large tractor-trailer...

Meta signs $10B cloud deal with rival Google

Summary: The six-year agreement will help Meta scale its AI infrastructure as it plans to spend hundreds of billions on data centers., Description: Meta Platforms has agreed to a major cloud computing deal with Google worth more than $10 billion over six years, according to sources familiar with the matter, marking one of the largest known agreements in Google Cloud's history as the social media giant scales up its artificial intelligence infrastructure. The deal, first reported by The Information on Thursday, will see Meta use Google...

Ukraine unveils 1,864-mile Flamingo cruise missile

Summary: Fire Point startup plans to produce seven missiles daily by October, marking Ukraine's push for military self-sufficiency amid ongoing conflict., Description: Ukrainian defense startup Fire Point has unveiled its revolutionary Flamingo cruise missile, capable of striking targets 1,864 miles away with a devastating 2,535-pound warhead, marking Ukraine's transformation into what experts call the "Silicon Valley of defense technology." The Associated Press gained exclusive access to one of Fire Point's covert production facilities on Wednesday, where...

Carney and Trump discuss 'new economic relationship'

Summary: First call since U.S. raised tariffs on Canadian goods to 35%, with leaders agreeing to reconvene shortly., Description: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump held their first conversation in weeks on Thursday, discussing trade relations and a potential "new economic and security relationship" between the two countries after Canada failed to secure a deal before Trump's August 1 deadline. The leaders engaged in what Carney's office described as a "productive and wide-ranging...

UK seizes third-largest steel producer amid insolvency

Summary: Government takes control of Speciality Steel UK after court found it "hopelessly insolvent," protecting 1,400 jobs at strategic facilities., Description: The UK government has seized control of the country's third-largest steel producer after a High Court judge ordered the compulsory liquidation of Speciality Steel UK, placing more than 1,400 jobs under state protection. The dramatic intervention marks the second government takeover of a major steel facility this year, underscoring the crisis facing Britain's strategic steel industry. Justice...