Daily Strategic Briefing

Monday, August 11, 2025

"Today's news flow highlights emerging geopolitical and economic crosscurrents. The ongoing conflict in Lebanon, involving Hezbollah, underscores the persistent instability in key regions. Simultaneously, global economic indicators signal caution: Indonesian retail sales growth is easing, and both Australia and New Zealand face currency headwinds amid anticipated interest rate decisions and weak demand from China. Within the tech sector, TCS's layoffs due to AI adoption and NVIDIA/AMD facing potential fees for China sales, coupled with OpenAI's cost-cutting advancements, point to a dynamic technology landscape. In India, Biocon's profit plunge and Tata Motors' risks are balanced by Jyoti Structures' new order, showcasing mixed signals in the domestic market. Additionally, SoftBank's IPO plans for PayPay and India's space program achievements represent forward-looking strategic moves."

  • Monitor potential impacts of geopolitical instability in Lebanon and the Middle East on global supply chains and energy prices.
  • Assess potential implications of a slower Indonesian economy, especially its knock-on effects on consumer spending.
  • Evaluate the strategic positioning of the company's technology investments in light of AI-driven workforce changes and cost-saving innovations in the chip sector.
  • Analyze the company's exposure to the Chinese market, given potential trade restrictions and related risks to revenue streams.
  • Consider the implications of potential market corrections within the Indian economy, particularly in sectors like automotive and pharmaceuticals.

Market Dashboard

S&P 500

6,389.45 (+0.78%)

NASDAQ

21,450.02 (+0.98%)

BSE Sensex

79,840.02 (-0.02%)

NSE Nifty 50

24,398.75 (+0.15%)

VIX

15.15 (-8.57%)

Enterprise Technology News

Nvidia and AMD reportedly chipping in to Washington’s coffers with 15 percent fee for China sales

Trump administration’s licenses come with an IOU Nvidia and AMD will reportedly be allowed to resume sales in China if they cough a license fee amounting to 15 percent of sales.…

India’s services giant TCS lays off over 10,000 for reasons including AI, hikes wages for survivors

PLUS: Huawei open sources its CUDA equivalent; China boosts brain-computer interfaces; Scientists to visit penguins Trump taxed; And more! Asia In Brief  Indian services giant Tata Consultancy Services will shed over 10,000 staff but will give pay rises to most of those who remain.…

Trend Micro offers weak workaround for already-exploited critical vuln in management console

PLUS: Crypto mixer founders plead guilty; Another French telco hacked; Meta fights WhatsApp scams; And more! Infosec In Brief  A critical vulnerability in the on-prem version of Trend Micro's Apex One endpoint security platform is under active exploitation, the company admitted last week, and there's no patch available.…

DEF CON hackers plug security holes in US water systems amid tsunami of threats

Five pilot deployments are just a drop in the bucket, so it's time to turbo scale def con  A DEF CON hacker walks into a small-town water facility…no, this is not the setup for a joke or a (super-geeky) odd-couple rom-com. It's a true story that happened at five utilities across four states.…

How OpenAI used a new data type to cut inference costs by 75%

Decision to use MXFP4 makes models smaller, faster, and more importantly, cheaper for everyone involved Analysis  Whether or not OpenAI's new open weights models are any good is still up for debate, but their use of a relatively new data type called MXFP4 is arguably more important, especially if it catches on among OpenAI's rivals.…

AI News

Sam Altman addresses ‘bumpy’ GPT-5 rollout, bringing 4o back, and the ‘chart crime’

Summary:

The Reddit AMA got spicy as users peppered OpenAI with questions, and some asked the company to bring back its previous model.

RIP, Microsoft Lens, a simple little app that’s getting replaced by AI

Summary:

Microsoft is killing Lens, a handy mobile scanning app with over 90 million downloads.

Former Googlers’ AI startup OpenArt now creates ‘brain rot’ videos in just one click

Summary:

OpenArt launched a new feature to help creators make AI-generated brain rot videos.

Don’t let your competitor steal the brand spotlight — secure your exhibit table at TechCrunch Disrupt 2025

Summary:

For 20 years, startups have come to TechCrunch Disrupt to meet their first investors, land their biggest partnerships, and spark the idea that takes them to the next level.

NASA and Google are building an AI medical assistant to keep Mars-bound astronauts healthy

Summary:

The multimodal tool, which includes speech, text, and images, runs inside Google Cloud’s Vertex AI environment.

Funding & Startup News: India

Thala approved: MS Dhoni backs House of Biryan to take personalised biryani global

House of Biryan plans to use the capital backing from MS Dhoni to expand globally, targeting 120+ kitchens across global markets with a revenue goal of Rs 450–550 crore over the next three years.

Lending startup Fibe raises Rs 225 Cr via NCDs to fuel disbursals

Fibe, formerly known as EarlySalary, has grown beyond its original salary advance offering to include products like education and healthcare financing, solar rooftop loans, digital fixed deposits, and loans against mutual funds.

Zerodha's Rainmatter picks up nearly 5% stake in fund house Capitalmind

The investment aligns with the reopening of the Capitalmind Flexi Cap Fund for subscriptions. About 75% of the initial corpus came via direct plans, half of which were channelled through Zerodha’s Coin platform.

Jeh Aerospace secures $11M in Series A funding led by Elevation Capital

The aerospace manufacturing startup plans to use the funds to build mega factories and advance software-defined manufacturing for reliable, scalable production.

Renee Cosmetics raises $30M in series C round at $200M valuation

Ahmedabad-based Renee Cosmetics said it plans to expand its product portfolio, scale omnichannel presence across Tier I and Tier II cities and strengthen marketing and tech stack from the latest funding.

India Market Highlights

Biocon Profit Plunges 95%, Stock Falls 3%

Biocon's consolidated net profit fell 95.2% YoY to ₹31.4 crore. The stock declined nearly 3% following the profit drop. Source: ScoutQuest

Voltas Down 6% on Weak Q1, Nuvama Downgrade

Voltas drops 6% after weak Q1 results and Nuvama downgrade. Blue Star falls over 1% after significant guidance cut; PG Electroplast declines on target price cut. Source: ScoutQuest

Tata Motors, OMCs in Focus as Nifty Opens Flat Near 24,350

Tata Motors, OMCs, and Voltas are in focus as Nifty opens near 24,350. Sensex remains flat during market opening. Source: ScoutQuest

Tata Motors Faces 13% Downside Risk Post Q1 Ratings

Tata Motors' lowest price target is 13% below current levels. Analysts provide ratings post Q1 results for Tata Motors. Source: ScoutQuest

Jyoti Structures Wins ₹639 Cr EPC Order for Transmission Lines

Jyoti Structures Ltd secures a ₹639 Cr order for 765kV, 400kV transmission lines. The turnkey EPC project is expected to be commissioned within 12-15 months. Source: ScoutQuest

Global Economic Indicators

Copper Holds Steady as Codelco to Restart Operations

Country: Commodity, Description: Copper futures held around $4.46 per pound on Monday after Codelco received authorization from Chile’s labor inspectorate over the weekend to begin resuming certain operations at its flagship El Teniente mine. The state-owned miner had suspended operations for more than a week following a deadly collapse that killed six workers, tightening global supply as El Teniente is the world’s largest underground copper mine. Still, copper prices remain near four-month lows after plunging more than 20% in late July when President Donald Trump excluded refined copper from new tariffs. The levies will instead target imports of semi-finished copper products such as wires and pipes, while sparing ore, cathodes, and concentrates — among the most widely imported copper forms in the US.

Indonesia Retail Sales Growth Eases

Country: Indonesia, Description: Indonesia’s retail sales grew 1.3% year-on-year in June 2025, slowing from a 1.9% rise in the previous month but marking the second consecutive month of increase. Sales growth eased for food, beverages, and tobacco (2.4% vs 4.0% in May) and cultural and recreational goods (1.5% vs 4.7%). Turnover also weakened for automotive parts and accessories (-0.9% vs 1.6%), fuel (1.2% vs 5.3%), household appliances (-5.9% vs -5.8%), and information and communication equipment (-17.9% vs -27.4%). In contrast, clothing sales rose (1.4% vs -0.3%), registering the first increase in three months. On a monthly basis, retail sales edged down 0.2%, moderating from a 1.3% drop in May and posting the smallest decline in three months, supported by holiday-related spending and cash handouts from the government ahead of the new school year.

AUS 10-Year Yield Falls Ahead of RBA Rate Call

Country: Australia, Description: Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.26%, retreating from a one-week high, as attention turned to the interest rate decision this week. The Reserve Bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps amid signs of easing inflationary pressures and emerging labor market weakness. The monetary policy decision will come ahead of July’s jobs data, which is expected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, its highest level since November 2021, while employment is forecast to increase by nearly 22 thousand. Although a rate cut is anticipated, Governor Michele Bullock is expected to maintain a cautious stance on the monetary outlook. After the July decision, Bullock stated that the central bank will no longer provide forward guidance, emphasizing that all decisions are made collectively by the board and cannot be predicted in advance. Externally, global yields may face downward pressure as traders ramp up bets on US rate cuts amid growing economic concerns.

New Zealand Dollar Steady

Country: New Zealand, Description: The New Zealand dollar held steady around $0.595 on Monday, halting losses from the previous session amid a relatively softer US dollar. Market focus shifted to upcoming US inflation data after the greenback came under pressure last week amid rising bets of a September rate cut and a possible move in December, driven by soft labor market signals. Pressuring the Kiwi, however, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon indicated that US tariff relief is unlikely following the recent imposition of a 15% tariff on New Zealand exports. Attention also remains on whether the US–China tariff truce will be extended before the August 12 deadline. Additionally, China’s July CPI and PPI data underscored weak domestic demand. Given New Zealand’s close trade ties with China, these developments add pressure to Kiwi exports and the broader export-driven economy. Domestically, recent soft labor market data has further fueled expectations that the Reserve Bank may cut interest rates later this month.

Aussie Dollar Steady as RBA Decision Looms

Country: Australia, Description: The Australian dollar steadied around $0.652 on Monday, as investors cautiously awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decision due on Tuesday. Markets broadly expect a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.60% at the August meeting, amid softer-than-expected Q2 inflation and a rise in the unemployment rate to its highest level in three and a half years. This follows the RBA’s unexpected decision in July to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.85%, citing a more balanced assessment of inflation risks and continued resilience in the labor market. However, uncertainty remains as RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated that the central bank would no longer provide forward guidance, emphasizing that rate decisions are made solely by the board and cannot be anticipated in advance. Externally, the Australian dollar found partial support from a weakening greenback ahead of Tuesday’s US inflation data and the looming August 12 US-China tariff truce deadline.

Other Key Development

SoftBank picks banks for PayPay's potential $2B U.S. IPO

Summary: The Japanese payments app could go public as early as Q4 2025, following Arm Holdings' successful $145 billion market debut., Description: SoftBank has selected Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Mizuho Financial Group, and Morgan Stanley as the lead underwriters for a potential U.S. IPO of its Japanese payments app PayPay, according to sources familiar with the matter. The offering could raise more than $2 billion and take place as early as the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a significant milestone in the digital payments company's...

India set to launch massive US-built satellite after six decades of progress

Summary: ISRO will launch a 6,500 kg American communication satellite, marking transformation from receiving tiny US rocket in 1963 to major launch provider., Description: India's space agency is marking a historic milestone in its journey from humble beginnings to becoming a global space power, with ISRO Chairman V. Narayanan announcing plans to launch a massive 6,500 kg US-built communication satellite in the coming months. The announcement comes as the organization celebrates launching 433 satellites for 34 countries using its own launch vehicles.

China advances space ambitions with Mars, moon milestones

Summary: The nation plans Mars sample return by 2031, discovers lunar volcanic secrets, and tests crewed moon lander ahead of astronaut landing goal., Description: China has reached a pivotal moment in its space exploration ambitions, with recent breakthroughs in Mars mission planning, lunar sample discoveries, and critical tests of its crewed moon lander advancing the nation's quest to establish itself as a leading space power.

Blast kills six Lebanese soldiers dismantling Hezbollah depot

Summary: The blast occurred as troops worked to implement a US-backed disarmament plan that Hezbollah has vowed to ignore., Description: Six Lebanese soldiers were killed and several wounded on Saturday in a powerful explosion while dismantling a weapons depot belonging to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, highlighting the deadly risks facing troops as they work to implement a contentious disarmament plan that has drawn fierce opposition from the Iran-backed group. The blast occurred in Wadi Zibqin, near the coastal city of Tyre,...

Europe demands Ukraine's voice in Trump-Putin peace talks

Summary: Seven European leaders issued a joint statement rejecting territorial concessions and insisting Ukraine must participate in any negotiations with Russia., Description: European leaders have issued a unified statement demanding Ukraine's inclusion in any peace negotiations with Russia, marking a coordinated pushback against President Donald Trump's suggestion that territorial concessions could be part of a peace deal ahead of his planned summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska. The joint statement, signed Saturday evening by leaders from the UK, France, Italy,...