Daily Strategic BriefingThursday, July 10, 2025 |
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"Today's financial markets showed mixed signals, with US and Chinese markets experiencing gains, while Indian markets saw a split performance. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, fueled by investor risk appetite and a dovish Federal Reserve outlook. However, escalating trade tensions, particularly between the US and Japan, and the imposition of tariffs signal potential headwinds. In the tech sector, Microsoft highlighted significant AI-driven cost savings, while OpenAI is reportedly preparing to launch an AI browser, and YouTube is preparing to crack down on repetitive AI-generated content. The government's focus on AI safety reports highlights growing regulatory interest in the field."
Market Dashboard
Key DevelopmentChina plans data centers with 115k banned Nvidia chipsSummary: U.S. officials estimate only 25,000 restricted chips exist in China, far below the number needed for the ambitious western desert facilities., Description: According to Bloomberg's analysis, and reported by others, China is constructing dozens of data centers across its western provinces with plans to install over 115,000 Nvidia AI chips, despite these advanced processors being subject to strict U.S. export controls since 2022. But there is reportedly minimal evidence that China has actually acquired or is able to acquire this number of restricted... Interest charges restart for 8M student loan borrowersSummary: Monthly payments remain suspended, but interest will begin accumulating on August 1 for SAVE plan participants amid ongoing legal battles., Description: Nearly 8 million student loan borrowers will see interest charges restart on their debt next month, the Education Department announced Wednesday, ending a year-long pause that had provided relief to participants in the embattled SAVE repayment program. The decision marks the latest development in a legal battle that has kept borrowers in limbo since courts blocked the Biden-era plan in 2024. Senate confirms airline executive to lead FAA overhaulSummary: Bryan Bedford will oversee $12.5 billion in air traffic control modernization amid safety concerns following the Reagan Airport collision., Description: The Senate voted 53-43 Wednesday to confirm Bryan Bedford as the next administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration, installing the longtime airline executive to lead the agency amid mounting pressure to modernize the nation's aging air traffic control system. Bedford, who stepped down last week as CEO of Republic Airways after more than 25 years, will oversee a $12.5 billion... South Korea court approves second arrest warrant for ex-PresidentSummary: The former president faces new charges of abuse of power and obstruction of justice related to his failed martial law declaration., Description: Former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was first arrested in January 2025 over his controversial declaration of martial law, faces new legal troubles as a Seoul court has approved a second arrest warrant on additional charges of abuse of power and obstruction of justice related to the same incident. Trump taps Transportation Secretary Duffy to lead NASASummary: Sean Duffy will serve as interim administrator after Trump withdrew his original nominee amid concerns about ties to Elon Musk., Description: President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy will serve as interim administrator of NASA, filling a leadership void at the space agency that has persisted since the president withdrew his original nominee in May. The appointment makes Duffy the second Cabinet member to hold dual roles in the Trump administration, joining Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who... AI NewsWhy Cluely’s Roy Lee isn’t sweating cheating detectorsSummary: Cluely, the startup that until recently marketed itself as a “cheat on everything” tool, is moving away from cheating. Microsoft shares $500M in AI savings internally days after cutting 9,000 jobsSummary: Microsoft’s chief commercial officer Judson Althoff noted AI has been so useful that Microsoft was able to save more than $500 million last year in its call center alone. California lawmaker behind SB 1047 reignites push for mandated AI safety reportsSummary: California State Senator Scott Wiener on Wednesday introduced new amendments to his latest bill, SB 53, that would require the world’s largest AI companies to publish safety and security protocols and issue reports when safety incidents occur. OpenAI is reportedly releasing an AI browser in the coming weeksSummary: OpenAI’s browser is said to use AI to rethink how users browse the web, keeping some user interactions inside ChatGPT instead of linking out to websites. YouTube prepares crackdown on ‘mass-produced’ and ‘repetitive’ videos, as concern over AI slop growsSummary: YouTube’s creator liaison said the change is a “minor” update to YouTube’s longstanding policies. Funding & Startup News: IndiaSai Parenterals raises Rs 50 Cr in equity to expand global footprintThe company said the capital will be used to fuel its global expansion strategy, including acquisitions in regulated markets, enhancement of its manufacturing footprint, and diversification of its product portfolio. NRI-focused fintech Belong raises $5M in seed round led by Elevation CapitalThe startup claims to be the first fintech to offer USD Fixed Deposits to NRIs via India’s GIFT City—an International Financial Services Centre designed to streamline cross-border financial transactions. Jumbotail turns unicorn after raising $120M in Series D round; completes acquisition of SolvWith fresh capital and a broader portfolio, the Bengaluru-based firm aims to scale its commerce and credit stack for India’s small retailers. VC funding into Indian startups decline by 11% in H1 of 2025The decline in VC funding for the first half of 2025 was primarily due to lower number of large value deals and the uncertain macroeconomic environment. Deeptech startup Maieutic Semiconductor raises $4.15M from Endiya Partners, Exfinity Venture PartnersThe company plans to use the capital to scale its engineering team, accelerate product development, and says it is on an "aggressive hiring trajectory" to bring its platform to market. India Market HighlightsPFC, REC Up 2% on Morgan Stanley Overweight RatingPFC and REC shares gain 2% after Morgan Stanley's overweight rating. Source: ScoutQuest Jattashankar Q2 Stagnant; Cash Hits 6-Period LowJattashankar Industries reports flat Q2 FY25 results, with cash at Rs 0.32 cr, lowest in 6 periods. Debtors Turnover Ratio at 0.00 times highlights operational challenges in the garments apparels sector. Source: Marketsmojo Shriram Finance, Apollo Tyres Go Ex-Dividend TodayShriram Finance, Apollo Tyres, IDFC First Bank go ex-date July 11. Zydus Wellness, Geojit Financial among other stocks announced dividends. Source: Business Standard TCS Q1 Results, Tariffs to Shape Nifty ExpiryTCS Q1 results and Trump's tariff moves may impact Nifty on expiry. Source: Moneycontrol BPCL Falls 2% as FY25 Profit Plunges 53%BPCL shares dropped 2% to Rs 348.5, ranking among Nifty Next 50's top losers. BPCL's FY25 net profit fell 53.4% YoY; EPS dropped sharply to Rs 31.21 from Rs 126.08. Source: Moneycontrol Global Economic IndicatorsBitcoin Hits New All-Time HighCountry: other, Description: Bitcoin rallied to around $112,000 in mid-July, hitting a new all-time high as investors shifted toward riskier assets amid a broad stock market rally. Tech giant Nvidia led the surge after briefly becoming the first company to reach a $4 trillion market capitalization. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin has gained over 18%, supported by sustained institutional demand as traditional financial players increasingly embrace the world’s largest cryptocurrency. The Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance has also strengthened the digital asset market, helping unlock fresh capital inflows into the sector. Meanwhile, markets appeared to shrug off some of the broader risks including a wave of tariff demand letters from President Trump, raising concerns over escalating trade tensions. Separately, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting showed that most officials were open to cutting interest rates later this year, a move typically seen as supportive for Bitcoin. China Car Sales Rise 13.8% in JuneCountry: China, Description: China's vehicle sales grew by 13.8% year-on-year in June 2025, following an 11.2% increase in May, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) surged 26.7% in June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. In the first half of 2025, total vehicle sales climbed 11.4%, while NEV sales jumped 40.3%. For the full year, car sales are projected to grow by 4.7% to reach 32.9 million units, with NEV sales expected to rise by 24.4% to 16 million units. In 2024, total vehicle sales rose by 4.5% to 31.436 million units, a sharp slowdown from the 12% growth recorded in 2023. US 10-Year Yield Holds DeclineCountry: United States, Description: The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held around 4.33% on Thursday, stabilizing after a sharp decline in the previous session, driven by strong demand in a 10-year bond auction. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting also revealed that most policymakers were open to cutting interest rates later this year. Moreover, bond markets responded to President Donald Trump's call for the Fed funds rate to be 300 basis points lower, fueling longer-term inflation expectations and speculation around a dovish Fed nominee in 2026. On the trade front, Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports effective August 1, citing unfair trade practices. He also issued tariff notices to the Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka, imposing duties of 25% to 30% starting the same day. Markets now look ahead to potential trade agreements with India and the European Union. Stocks in China Hit 8-week HighCountry: China, Description: SHANGHAI 50 increased to 2762.00 Index Points, the highest since May 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Shanghai 50 gained 2.57%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 15.23%. Japanese Yen Rises on Dollar WeaknessCountry: Japan, Description: The Japanese yen appreciated to around 146 per dollar on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session as the US dollar weakened amid a sharp drop in Treasury yields. Global trade tensions also contributed to market caution as US President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, effective August 1, citing unfair trade practices. Meanwhile, US-Japan trade talks have stalled, particularly over Japan’s protection of its rice market. Trump recently imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, also set to take effect on August 1, and ruled out any extension of the deadline. In response, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called the move “truly regrettable” but reaffirmed Japan’s commitment to ongoing negotiations in pursuit of a mutually beneficial outcome. A local think tank projects the new tariffs could reduce Japan’s GDP by 0.8% in 2025 and by 1.9% cumulatively through 2029. |
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