Daily Strategic BriefingThursday, July 03, 2025 |
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"Today's market activity shows mixed signals. While US markets saw modest gains, with the NASDAQ leading, global economic indicators reveal both opportunities and risks. The rise in Vietnam's stock market, spurred by a new US trade deal, contrasts with the cooling US labor market, where unemployment is projected to rise. Commodity markets reflect these tensions, with iron ore prices firming in anticipation of China's efforts to curb overcapacity, while crude oil prices are down. The tech sector shows continued investment, with a deeptech startup and a sustainable packaging company securing funding. However, the news is also filled with warnings about the impact of AI on jobs and the potential for market volatility. Geopolitical instability, exemplified by trade deal adjustments and global droughts, adds to the complex landscape."
Market Dashboard
Key DevelopmentCIA says leaders rushed 2016 Russia interference reportSummary: Internal review criticizes former Director John Brennan's handling but upholds core finding that Putin directed election interference to help Trump., Description: A CIA review of its 2016 assessment of Russian election interference has identified procedural flaws and tradecraft concerns in how the report was produced. However, the review upholds the fundamental assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally authorized and directed efforts to influence the U.S. election outcome in favor of Donald Trump, as reported by CTV News and India Today. Skydiving plane crash at Cross Keys Airport leaves fifteen injuredSummary: A Cessna 208B went off the runway and into woods at Cross Keys Airport, with injuries ranging from minimal to severe., Description: Fifteen people were hospitalized after a Cessna 208B skydiving aircraft went off the runway and crashed into a wooded area at Cross Keys Airport in Gloucester County, New Jersey, on Wednesday evening, July 2, 2025, with injuries ranging from minimal to severe according to hospital officials, prompting a "mass casualty incident" response and FAA investigation into the aircraft that had previously... NY Gov. Hochul suspends press secretary Avi Small amid misconduct investigationSummary: Avi Small was placed on administrative leave after a male staffer accused him of inappropriate touching at an Albany bar., Description: New York Governor Kathy Hochul has placed her press secretary Avi Small on administrative leave pending an investigation into allegations of sexual harassment, after another male state employee accused him of inappropriate touching at an Albany bar during an Executive Chamber staff retreat that included a softball game on June 16, 2025. Columbia University says hacker who stole student data had political agendaSummary: The breach caused five-day outages and displayed Trump images on campus monitors amid federal funding disputes over affirmative action compliance., Description: According to multiple reliable news sources, a politically motivated hacker breached Columbia University's data systems on June 24, stealing student records and causing widespread network outages that temporarily locked students and staff out of their email accounts, coursework, and video conferencing software while displaying images of President Donald Trump on campus monitors. UN report warns climate change drives historic global drought crisisSummary: Climate change is driving unprecedented droughts across continents, threatening food security for millions and disrupting global trade routes., Description: According to a UN-backed report, the world is currently experiencing some of the most severe droughts in recorded history, with climate change intensifying these events from 2023 to 2025 and transforming them from regional occurrences into synchronized global crises that threaten food security, energy stability, and ecosystem integrity across Africa, Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. AI NewsAI job predictions become corporate America’s newest competitive sportSummary: In late May, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei appeared to kick open the door on a sensitive topic, warning that half of entry-level jobs could vanish within five years because of AI and push U.S. unemployment up to 20%. But Amodei is far from alone in sharing aloud that he foresees a workforce bloodbath. A new […] OpenAI condemns Robinhood’s ‘OpenAI tokens’Summary: OpenAI wants to make clear that Robinhood’s sale of “OpenAI tokens” will not give everyday consumers equity — or stock — in OpenAI. Wonder Dynamics co-founder Nikola Todorovic joins the AI Stage at TechCrunch Disrupt 2025Summary: TechCrunch Disrupt 2025 is back at Moscone West in San Francisco from October 27–29, bringing together 10,000+ startup and VC leaders to dig into what’s next in tech. And when it comes to artificial intelligence, the conversations aren’t just technical — they’re creative, cinematic, and boundary-pushing. That’s why Nikola Todorovic is headed to the AI […] Could Google’s Veo 3 be the start of playable world models?Summary: Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, hinted Tuesday evening that Veo 3, Google’s latest video generating model, could potentially be used for video games. Perplexity launches a $200 monthly subscription planSummary: The plan, Perplexity Max, offers unlimited access to various services and priority access to its services using the latest LLM models. Funding & Startup News: IndiaWiom raises $40M in growth funding led by Bertelsmann India, AccelIn an exclusive interview with YourStory, Wiom Founder Satyam Darmora shared the company’s growth plans following its $40 million fundraise. Deeptech startup Maieutic Semiconductor raises $4.15M from Endiya Partners, Exfinity Venture PartnersThe company plans to use the capital to scale its engineering team, accelerate product development, and says it is on an "aggressive hiring trajectory" to bring its platform to market. Aukera raises $15M led by Peak XV to expand retail presenceBengaluru-based Aukera aims to scale its lab-grown diamond retail network as consumer interest in sustainable fine jewellery rises. JSW Ventures leads Rs 40 Cr investment round in StayvistaExisting investors DSG Consumer Partners and Capri Global Family Office also participated in the investment round in villa rental company Stayvista. The newly raised money will be deployed for expansion purposes. Bambrew raises Rs 90 Cr from Ashok Goel and Enrission India CapitalBambrew said it will use the funding round towards R&D, expansion of product range, and entry into newer markets. India Market HighlightsGMR Airports Gains as TDSAT Overturns AERA Ruling on DIALGMR Airports rises as TDSAT overturns AERA's previous HRAB calculation for DIAL. Decision boosts investor sentiment; CNBC TV18 highlights the development. Source: ScoutQuest Thomas Scott Says No Pending Price-Sensitive Info; Stock Gains on Demand SurgeThomas Scott confirmed timely sharing of all price-sensitive information. Price surge attributed to market demand-supply balance; no unpublished info pending. Source: ScoutQuest Brigade Hotel Ventures Secures ₹126 Cr FundingBrigade Enterprises' hospitality arm, Brigade Hotel Ventures, raises ₹126 Cr. Source: ScoutQuest CRISIL Reaffirms Sundram Fasteners' A1 RatingCRISIL reaffirms Sundram Fasteners' Commercial Paper rating as CRISIL A1. Rating signals strong credit quality with no changes from prior assessment. Source: ScoutQuest Blue Star Jumps 4% on FY26 Growth OutlookBlue Star shares surged over 4% as it upheld FY26 industry growth target of 10-15%. Source: ScoutQuest Global Economic IndicatorsUS Nonfarm Payrolls Seen at 110K in JuneCountry: United States, Description: US nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 110K in June 2025, marking the smallest increase in four months and a slowdown from May’s gain of 139K. The unemployment rate is projected to edge up to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, from 4.2%, while wage growth likely eased to 0.3% from 0.4%. Hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector may have slowed, reflecting softer consumer spending on tourism and travel-related services. In contrast, the healthcare sector likely remained a key driver of job growth. Overall, the report is expected to point to a continued cooling in the labor market, as uncertainty surrounding tariffs, trade, and immigration policies leads many employers to adopt a more cautious hiring stance. Nonetheless, the data would continue to underscore a fundamentally resilient labor market, with monthly payroll gains in the 100K-170K range, sufficient to keep pace with growth in the working-age population. Vietnam Stocks Hit Over 3-Year High on US Trade DealCountry: Vietnam, Description: Equities in Vietnam rose 6 points, or 0.4%, to 1,391 around noon on Thursday, reaching their highest level since April 2022, after US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with the Southeast Asian country. Under the agreement, the US will impose a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam, down from the previously planned 46% levy starting next week. Traders welcomed the trade deal, given that the US is Vietnam’s top trading partner, with shipments to the US accounting for about 30% of Vietnam's GDP last year. Most sectors traded in the green, led by consumer non-durables and health services. Top performers included Dai Thien Loc Corp, Phuong Nam Cultural, and Duc Long Gia, which surged 7% each, while Vietnam Container Shipping and Truong Thanh Furniture jumped 6.9% and 6.6%, respectively. Iron Ore Firms as China Reins In OvercapacityCountry: Commodity, Description: Iron ore futures hovered around CNY 725 per tonne on Thursday, near six-week highs, as China ramped up efforts to reduce industrial overcapacity and rein in cutthroat price competition, part of broader measures to combat deflationary pressures. These policies are expected to support China’s struggling steel industry, which has been grappling with low margins and excess production. On the supply side, shipments from major exporters Australia and Brazil have been declining, further stoking market concerns. Recent data showed that top miners including Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, and Vale reported lower exports compared to the previous month. Adding to the bullish tone, a private survey showed this week that Chinese factory activity unexpectedly returned to expansion in June, signaling a potential rebound in industrial demand. The improved outlook is being linked to a temporary easing of US-China trade tensions, boosting sentiment in the world’s largest iron ore market. Switzerland Consumer Prices Edge Up in JuneCountry: Switzerland, Description: Consumer prices in Switzerland ticked up 0.1% year-on-year in June 2025, rebounding from a 0.1% fall in the previous month, which was the first decline since March 2021. The latest reading also defied market expectations of a 0.1% drop. Prices increased for restaurants and hotels (1.6% vs 1.3% in May) and rebounded for clothing and footwear (1% vs -0.3%). Housing and energy costs remained steady at 1.1%, while food prices were unchanged after a 0.3% fall in the prior month. Meanwhile, prices for transport (-3.7%) and recreation and culture (-0.1%) declined at the same pace as in the previous month. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as unprocessed food and energy, edged higher to 0.6% in June from May’s 44-month low of 0.5%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.2% in June, following a 0.1% rise in May, mainly attributed to higher prices in the hotel and para-hotel industry and for package tours abroad. Copper Holds Near 3-Month High on Tariff RisksCountry: Commodity, Description: Copper futures held above $5.10 per pound on Thursday, hovering near a three-month high as tightening global supplies and tariff-related uncertainty fueled buying interest. Traders have been redirecting copper shipments to the US ahead of possible import tariffs, leading to notable inventory drawdowns at both the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange. Speculation is growing around a potential 10% levy on US copper imports, widening the price gap between Comex and LME copper contracts—currently around $1,300 per ton. However, analysts warned that the recent rally could reverse swiftly if US demand weakens or if tariff announcements disappoint expectations. Meanwhile, copper prices continue to draw support from solid demand prospects in China. A private survey showed that Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly returned to growth in June, suggesting that the world’s largest copper consumer may be benefiting from easing trade tensions with the US. |
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