Daily Strategic Briefing

Tuesday, July 01, 2025

"The day's financial data paints a mixed picture. While US markets show modest gains, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ up, the VIX volatility index is also up, suggesting some underlying market unease. In India, the manufacturing sector shows strong growth, reaching a 14-month peak. Global economic activity presents a varied picture with the Netherlands showing slowing retail sales, and Indonesia's inflation accelerating. Corporate activity includes significant funding rounds for Jumbotail and Infra.Market in India, while other news highlights developments in AI, legal tech, and potential regulatory shifts. Several companies are announcing strategic moves from restructuring to entering new markets."

  • Monitor the rising VIX and its potential impact on overall market sentiment and investment strategies.
  • Assess the implications of rising manufacturing activity in India for potential investment and partnership opportunities.
  • Evaluate the impact of the US government's trade policies and tariffs on markets and supply chains, especially in light of the potential for tariffs on copper.
  • Consider the strategic implications of Apple potentially integrating third-party AI providers like Anthropic and OpenAI for Siri, as it could impact the competitive landscape.
  • Assess the impact of new funding and acquisitions in the legal tech space, which may signify a shift in how the legal market leverages data and AI

Market Dashboard

S&P 500

6,204.95 (+0.52%)

NASDAQ

20,369.73 (+0.47%)

BSE Sensex

83,718.57 (+0.13%)

NSE Nifty 50

25,520.30 (+0.01%)

VIX

16.73 (+2.51%)

Crude Oil

64.81 (-0.46%)

Gold

3,340.50 (+1.40%)

Key Development

US to reopen border ports to Mexican livestock imports

Summary: Phased reopening begins July 7 after two-month ban to contain deadly screwworm parasite threatening American cattle herds., Description: The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Monday it will begin a phased reopening of southern border ports to Mexican livestock imports starting July 7, ending a nearly two-month ban imposed to contain the spread of New World screwworm, a deadly parasitic fly threatening American cattle herds. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the first port to reopen will be Douglas, Arizona,...

Newsom signs bill exempting California projects from environmental reviews

Summary: The budget bill exempts wildfire fuel breaks, water upgrades and manufacturing facilities from environmental review under CEQA., Description: California lawmakers have passed significant rollbacks to the state's landmark California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), with Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democratic legislators approving a budget bill that exempts numerous projects from environmental review requirements, including wildfire fuel breaks, water system upgrades, and advanced manufacturing facilities.

China, Japan factories show signs of recovery in June

Summary: China's manufacturing PMI rose for the second straight month while Japan expanded for the first time in 13 months., Description: Factory activity in China and Japan showed signs of recovery in June, with both Asian manufacturing powerhouses posting improvements after months of contraction, according to official data released Monday. China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 49.7 in June from 49.5 in May, marking the second consecutive month of improvement, the National Bureau of Statistics reported....

Feds say 'Operation Gold Rush' dismantled $10.6B Medicare fraud scheme

Summary: Russian-led criminal organization used stolen identities of over one million Americans to submit fraudulent claims for medical equipment., Description: The federal government has unveiled details of "Operation Gold Rush," a massive crackdown on a transnational criminal organization's $10.6 billion Medicare fraud scheme that resulted in charges against 19 defendants who used stolen identities and medical data of over one million Americans across all 50 states to submit fraudulent claims for urinary catheters and other medical equipment, with the...

Obama and Bush criticize Trump over USAID merger at farewell event

Summary: Former presidents delivered rare public criticism as the six-decade-old humanitarian agency was absorbed into the State Department., Description: Former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush delivered rare public criticism of the Trump administration during an emotional farewell event with USAID staffers, with Obama calling the dismantling of the six-decade-old humanitarian agency "a colossal mistake" as it was absorbed into the State Department, ending a legacy that began with President Kennedy in 1961 and included critical...

US takes down North Korean 'remote IT workers' operation

Summary: The scheme used stolen identities and laptop farms to funnel over $5 million to Pyongyang's regime., Description: The U.S. Department of Justice has announced a major crackdown on North Korean IT worker schemes that infiltrated over 100 American companies, resulting in the arrest of U.S. national Zhenxing "Danny" Wang and indictments against 12 others who allegedly helped North Korean operatives steal identities, secure remote jobs, and funnel millions of dollars back to Pyongyang's regime.

Trump administration sues Los Angeles over sanctuary city policies and ICE response

Summary: DOJ claims city's immigration policies fueled unrest after ICE raids, while officials call the characterization an "outright lie.", Description: The Trump administration has filed a lawsuit against the city of Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass, and City Council members, challenging the city's sanctuary policies as "illegal" and seeking to block their enforcement, amid claims that these policies have fueled unrest following ICE operations that resulted in over 1,600 arrests across Southern California, though city officials strongly dispute...

Powell faces perjury accusations over Fed renovation claims

Summary: Lawmakers call for censure after government documents contradicted the Fed chair's sworn testimony denying luxury amenities in headquarters renovation., Description: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces mounting accusations that he misled Congress under oath about a $2.5 billion renovation of the central bank's Washington headquarters, with lawmakers and former Fed officials calling for his censure after government documents contradicted his sworn testimony. During a Senate Banking Committee hearing last Wednesday, Powell denied that the Fed's...

Proton sues Apple over App Store 'surveillance capitalism'

Summary: The privacy-focused company claims Apple's fees favor free apps that exploit user data over paid privacy services., Description: Swiss privacy technology company Proton filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple on Monday, joining a growing chorus of developers challenging the tech giant's control over iPhone app distribution and payment processing. The maker of encrypted email service Proton Mail accused Apple of operating illegal monopolies that harm both developers and consumers through what it calls "artificial and...

Senate cuts AI regulation ban from 10 to 5 years

Summary: Compromise creates exceptions for child safety and publicity rights but still faces bipartisan opposition ahead of Monday vote., Description: The Senate has revised a controversial provision in President Trump's budget bill that would ban states from regulating artificial intelligence, reducing the proposed moratorium from 10 years to five years following weekend negotiations between Republican senators. The compromise, reached between Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz of Texas and Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, also creates new...

AI News

ChatGPT: Everything you need to know about the AI-powered chatbot

Summary:

ChatGPT, OpenAI’s text-generating AI chatbot, has taken the world by storm since its launch in November 2022. What started as a tool to supercharge productivity through writing essays and code with short text prompts has evolved into a behemoth with 300 million weekly active users. 2024 was a big year for OpenAI, from its partnership […]

Legal software company Clio drops $1B on law data giant vLex

Summary:

Clio, last valued at $3B, makes a bet on AI-powered legal data provider

Next-gen procurement platform Levelpath nabs $55M

Summary:

The investment signals confidence in Levelpath’s fast growth and its potential to disrupt a market dominated by legacy players.

Apple reportedly considers letting Anthropic and OpenAI power Siri

Summary:

While Siri can already call on ChatGPT for difficult questions, Apple now seems to be exploring a much deeper integration with technology from third-party AI providers.

Songscription launches an AI-powered ‘Shazam for sheet music’

Summary:

This kind of product could be useful for a musician who records a song, then uploads it to get the sheet music — that way, they can skip the step of having to manually transcribe their work.

Funding & Startup News: India

Jumbotail turns unicorn after raising $120M in Series D round; completes acquisition of Solv

With fresh capital and a broader portfolio, the Bengaluru-based firm aims to scale its commerce and credit stack for India’s small retailers.

Aukera raises $15M led by Peak XV to expand retail presence

Bengaluru-based Aukera aims to scale its lab-grown diamond retail network as consumer interest in sustainable fine jewellery rises.

Wiom raises $40M in growth funding led by Bertelsmann India, Accel

In an exclusive interview with YourStory, Wiom Founder Satyam Darmora shared the company’s growth plans following its $40 million fundraise.

Infra.Market raises $50M from MARS Growth Capital in debt funding

Infra.Market has an existing $100 million of credit from MARS Growth Capital.

GoKwik secures $13 M in round led by RTP Global

Ecommerce enablement platform GoKwik has raised $13 million in a growth round to support its international expansion and AI-offerings.

Fabheads raises $10M in Series A led by Accel

The new capital will be used to expand manufacturing capacity, grow the leadership team, and strengthen client-facing engineering and R&D functions.

PharmEasy founders launch home improvement venture All Home, raise seed round at $120M valuation

PharmEasy founders Dharmil Sheth, Dhaval Shah, and Hardik Dedhia have launched a one-stop shop for home improvement needs.

[Weekly funding roundup June 14-20] VC inflow crashes to second lowest level for the year

Venture capital funding into Indian startups dropped to the second lowest level for the year till date. This is the fourth time that the total amount has fallen below $100 million level on a weekly basis.

EV startup Okinawa receives a shot in the arm, raises Rs 60 Cr

The fundraise comes as the company looks to navigate funding troubles, thinning market share, and plunging revenues after being sent notices by the government for misusing subsidies given to EV-makers.

[Weekly funding roundup June 21-27] A sharp rise in VC inflow

The last week of June witnessed almost a six-fold jump in venture capital money into Indian startups.

India Market Highlights

Ashoka Buildcon Extends Stake Sale Deadline to Sep 2025

Ashoka Buildcon delays sale of stakes in 5 subsidiaries to Sep 30, 2025. Initial completion was March 31, 2025, extended twice due to pending conditions. Source: ScoutQuest

Titagarh Aims for 50% Revenue from Passenger Segment in 2-3 Years

Titagarh Rail Systems expects passenger segment to contribute 50% to revenue in 2-3 years. Source: ScoutQuest

Bajaj Auto June Sales Miss Estimates at 3.60 Lakh Units

Bajaj Auto reports June sales at 3.60 lakh units, below CNBC TV18 poll of 3.79 lakh. Source: ScoutQuest

Max Healthcare's GST Appeal Rejected; Further Action Planned

Max Healthcare's subsidiary HBPL's GST appeal rejected by tax commissioner. HBPL plans further appeal; July 2024 update continues on GST case. Source: ScoutQuest

VST Tillers Sales Jump 93% YoY in June

VST Tillers Tractors reports June 2025 total sales of 7,149 units, up from 3,710 units in June 2024. Power tiller sales stood at 6,651 units, and tractor sales were 498 units; data is unaudited. Source: ScoutQuest

Kuantum Papers Restarts Upgraded Machine 4 for Higher Efficiency

Kuantum Papers restarted Paper Machine 4 on June 30, 2025, after major upgrades. Upgrades include shoe press, better automation, and enhanced drying for efficiency. Source: ScoutQuest

Investec Bullish on IDFC First, Sees 29% CAGR in Profits

Investec is bullish on IDFC First Bank, expecting 29% CAGR in PPO profit over FY25-28e. Source: ScoutQuest

Bharat Dynamics Up 3%, Lifts Defence Stocks

Bharat Dynamics gains over 3%, boosting momentum in defence stocks. Source: ScoutQuest

Bajaj Auto Slides as June Sales Disappoint

Bajaj Auto shares decline following June sales missing expectations. Source: ScoutQuest

Asian Paints Up 2% on Positive Brokerage Call

Asian Paints gains over 2% after a favorable brokerage report. Source: ScoutQuest

Global Economic Indicators

India Manufacturing Growth Confirmed at 14-Month Peak

Country: India, Description: The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI stood at 58.4 in June 2025, matching flash data and marking the highest print since April 2024. Output and buying activity rose the most in 14 months, while new orders grew at their quickest rate in almost a year, boosted by strong marketing efforts and a sharp rise in exports. Foreign demand gained solid momentum, with its growth reaching the third-highest rate since data collection began in March 2005, driven in part by robust orders from the U.S. Employment rose at a record pace, reflecting strong business confidence. On the cost front, input price inflation eased to a four-month low despite higher iron and steel prices. However, selling prices rose markedly, as many firms passed on additional costs to customers. Meanwhile, average lead times shortened at the fastest pace in five months. Looking ahead, business optimism remained upbeat, though tempered by concerns over rising competition, inflation, and shifting consumer preferences.

India Stocks Kick off Q3 on Upbeat Note

Country: India, Description: Shares in India rose 143 points, or 0.2%, to 83,777 in early trading on the first day of the new quarter, recovering from losses in the prior session, mainly supported by the tech sector. The BSE Sensex followed an upbeat session on Wall Street amid easing trade tensions. Latest data also boosted sentiment, as India’s manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in 14 months in June. Meanwhile, India’s fiscal deficit narrowed to INR 0.13 trillion in April-May compared to the same period in 2024, driven by a surge in government revenue. PMI figures from China further lifted sentiment after factory activity unexpectedly expanded, supported by rises in new orders. However, traders remained cautious ahead of the July 9 deadline for trade negotiations with the US and potential tariffs by the Trump administration. Asian Paints led the gains with a 1.1% rise, followed by Mahindra & Mahindra (1.0%), UltraTech Cement (0.8%), Bharti Airtel (0.7%), and Reliance Industries (0.7%).

Japan Consumer Morale Highest in 4 Months

Country: Japan, Description: Japan’s consumer confidence index rose to 34.5 in June 2025, up from 32.8 in May and surpassing market forecasts of 33.6. It was the highest reading since February, with improvements seen across all components: overall livelihood (32.4 vs 30.2 in May), income growth expectations (38.9 vs 38.3), employment outlook (38.3 vs 37.1), and willingness to purchase durable goods (28.2 vs 25.4).

New Zealand Stocks Kick-Start July Higher

Country: New Zealand, Description: The S&P/NZX 50 index closed 0.4% higher at 12,655 on Tuesday, extending recent gains and starting the first trading day of the month on a positive note, led by health stocks and non-energy mineral shares. Investors continued to weigh the global impact of US tariff policies, with the 90-day reprieve set to expire next week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said some countries are “negotiating in good faith” but warned tariffs could “snap back” to April 2 levels if talks stall. Meanwhile, private data showed China’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion, easing concerns over risks to Kiwi exports given the countries’ close trade ties. Among health stocks and non-energy mineral shares, gains were led by Fisher & Paykel (+2.6%), AFT Pharmaceuticals (+1.1%), Fletcher Building (+2.1%), Santana Minerals (+2.7%), and Arborgen Holdings (+1.6%).

Dutch Retail Sales Growth Slows to 5-Month Low

Country: Netherlands, Description: Retail sales in the Netherlands rose by 2.2% year-on-year in May 2025, slowing from a downwardly revised and ten-month high of 3.9% advance in the previous month. This marked the eleventh consecutive month of growth in retail activity but the softest since December last year, driven by slower increases in sales of both food (1.7% vs 2.4% in April) and non-food products (2.5% vs 4.7%). Food products particularly moderated in specialty shops (3.6% vs 8.4%) and supermarkets (1.4% vs 1.6%), while trade declined for shoes & leather goods (-4.3% vs 2.5%), consumer electronics & white goods (-10% vs -10.3%), and eased for DIY, kitchens, and floors (1.6% vs 5.6%) for non-food products. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail activity dropped by 0.6% in May, following an upwardly revised 0.5% fall in the preceding period.

Dutch Inflation Rate Falls to 13-Month Low

Country: Netherlands, Description: The annual inflation rate in the Netherlands eased to 3.1% in June 2025 from 3.3% in May, marking the lowest level since May 2024. The main downward pressure came from moderated inflation for industrial goods excluding energy and motor fuels (0.6% vs. 1.8% in May), and food, beverages, and tobacco (4.6% vs. 7.1%). Meanwhile, services inflation picked up to 4.4% compared to 3.8% in the prior period, and costs rebounded for energy including motor fuels (0.6% vs. -1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to stall following a 0.5% fall in May. Meanwhile, the harmonized consumer prices used for EU comparisons are projected to rise 2.8% year-on-year, slightly easing from a 2.9% increase previously.

Indonesia June Inflation Rate Accelerates to 1.87%

Country: Indonesia, Description: Indonesia’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.87% in June 2025, up from 1.60% in May and slightly above market forecasts of a 1.83% increase, remaining within the central bank’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5%. Prices accelerated for food (1.99 % vs 1.03% in May), housing (1.59% vs 1.54%), health (1.84% vs 1.79%), and clothing (1.01% vs 0.91%). Prices moderated for accommodation and restaurants (1.95% vs 1.97%), furnishing (0.57% vs 0.79%), transport (0.15% vs 0.18%), and education (1.82% vs 1.88%). By contrast, communication prices continued to drop (-0.27% vs -0.28%). Core inflation, which excludes administered and volatile food prices, edged down to a five-month low of 2.37%, from 2.4% in May, and came in below the consensus estimate of a 2.44% rise. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.19%, rebounding from a 0.37% decline in May and slightly above the 0.15% gain recorded in the prior month.

Indonesia Trade Surplus Beats Estimates

Country: Indonesia, Description: Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD 4.30 billion in May 2025, from USD 2.92 billion in the same month a year earlier, and came in well above market expectations of a USD 2.40 billion surplus. Exports rose by 9.68% year-on-year to a 31-month high of USD 24.61 billion, far exceeding forecasts of a 1% increase and accelerating from a 5.76% gain in April. Meanwhile, imports unexpectedly grew by 4.14% year-on-year to USD 20.31 billion, beating expectations of a 0.1% decline. Although still positive, it marked the softest pace since February, following a 21.84% surge in April, amid easing global trade tensions.

Indonesia Imports Unexpectedly Grow

Country: Indonesia, Description: Indonesia's imports rose 4.14% yoy to USD 20.31 billion in May 2025, defying market expectations for a 0.1% decline. The increase marked a fourth straight month of growth, buoyed by the effects of a 90-day trade truce on U.S. tariffs. However, the latest figure was a marked slowdown from April’s 21.84% surge, the sharpest increase in almost three years, due to subdued activity during public holidays. Non-oil and gas imports continued to gain (5.44% vs 29.86% in April) to USD 17.67 billion. Meanwhile, oil and gas imports shrank much slower (-3.8% vs -15.57%) to USD 2.64 billion, mainly dragged by lower purchases of crude oil (-12.34%). By country, imports were higher from China (20.05%), Japan (22.45%), South Korea (3.61%), and Taiwan (42.57%). In contrast, purchases from the U.S. slumped 11.72%. Imports from ASEAN fell 2.38%, weighed by Thailand (-13.89%). Also, arrivals from the EU plunged 23.85%, notably from Germany (-10.30%). Year-to-date, imports added 5.45% to USD 96.60 billion.

Copper Prices Hold Firm Amid Supply Constraints

Country: Commodity, Description: Copper futures edged lower toward $5 per pound on Tuesday but remained near three-month highs, supported by persistent supply tightness and continued flows to the US ahead of a pending tariff decision. Stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange fell again last week, dropping to 91,275 metric tons—the lowest level in nearly two years. Meanwhile, inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 19.11% to 81,550 metric tons, marking a one-month low. Since the Trump administration launched an investigation into copper imports in February, an estimated 400 kilotons have been front-loaded into the US market in anticipation of potential tariffs. This rush has intensified the supply squeeze in other key markets. In China, the world’s top copper consumer, factory activity unexpectedly expanded in June, according to the Caixin PMI. The rebound was driven by increased government support aimed at countering the economic impact of rising US tariffs.