Daily Strategic Briefing

OpenAI ‘recalibrating’ pay after losing talent to Meta, memo says

Summary: Chief Research Officer Mark Chen says losing researchers feels like "someone has broken into our home and stolen something.", Description: According to reports by WIRED and others, OpenAI is "recalibrating" its compensation structure after Meta successfully poached several senior researchers, with Chief Research Officer Mark Chen expressing that the company feels as if "someone has broken into our home and stolen something" in a Slack memo addressing the high-profile departures.

Firefighters shot in suspected ambush while responding to Idaho fire

Summary: Authorities believe the Canfield Mountain fire was deliberately set as a trap to target first responders in Coeur d'Alene., Description: Multiple firefighters were shot in what authorities are describing as an ambush while responding to a brush fire near Canfield Mountain in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, with the Kootenai County Sheriff's Office confirming that an unknown gunman hiding in the woods targeted first responders, prompting evacuation orders and a massive emergency response as law enforcement investigates whether the fire was...

UN nuclear watchdog says Iran could further enrich uranium within months

Summary: IAEA chief Rafael Grossi says Iran retains industrial capabilities despite severe damage from recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities., Description: According to Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran could resume uranium enrichment within "a matter of months" despite recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on key nuclear facilities. This assessment contradicts U.S. President Donald Trump's claims that the strikes had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program, with Grossi noting that while there was "severe damage,"...

Nvidia insiders sell over $1B in stock as shares hit records

Summary: CEO Jensen Huang resumed selling after nine months, offloading $45 million in shares as the chipmaker reclaimed its position as world's most valuable company., Description: NVIDIA executives and board members have sold more than $1 billion worth of company stock over the past 12 months, with over $500 million in sales occurring in June alone as the chipmaker's shares soared to record highs. The wave of insider selling comes as NVIDIA reclaimed its position as the world's most valuable company, with a market capitalization reaching $3.8 trillion amid surging demand...

NYC Democratic nominee Mamdani doubles down on "anti-billionaire" stance

Summary: Zohran Mamdani defended his controversial property tax plan that would shift burden to "richer and whiter neighborhoods.", Description: New York City's likely next mayor doubled down on his progressive agenda Sunday, telling NBC's "Meet the Press" that billionaires should not exist while defending his controversial property tax plan that would shift the burden to "richer and whiter neighborhoods." Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old Democratic Socialist who secured his party's nomination after Andrew Cuomo conceded Tuesday's...

Senator Tillis won’t seek reelection following Trump’s primary threat

Summary: The North Carolina Republican announced his decision after opposing Trump's massive tax bill over concerns it would strip $38.9 billion in Medicaid funding., Description: According to ABC News, Republican Senator Thom Tillis announced Sunday that he will not seek reelection in 2026, a decision that came shortly after President Donald Trump threatened to field primary challengers against him following Tillis' vote against advancing Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" in the Senate.

Extreme heat wave grips southern Europe

Summary: Countries including Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal issue wildfire warnings and ban outdoor work during peak hours., Description: According to ABC News, major heat waves across Southern Europe have pushed temperatures above 40°C (104°F) in countries including Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal, prompting local authorities to issue warnings about wildfire risks and implement protective measures such as banning outdoor work during the hottest hours of the day.

Biden and Harris attend funeral of slain Minnesota lawmaker

Summary: Former House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband were shot by a man posing as a police officer in what prosecutors called a politically-motivated assassination., Description: Former President Joe Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris joined Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and more than 1,000 mourners at the funeral of former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, who were shot to death in their home by a man posing as a police officer in what federal prosecutors have called an assassination.

Trump says he's found TikTok buyers, will reveal names soon

Summary: The president granted another 90-day extension while claiming "very wealthy people" are ready to purchase the Chinese-owned platform., Description: President Donald Trump announced Sunday that he has identified a group of wealthy buyers for TikTok and plans to reveal their identities within two weeks, marking the latest development in the protracted effort to force the Chinese-owned social media platform to divest its U.S. operations. Speaking on Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo," Trump said the prospective...

Global economy at 'crossroads' as inflation fears mount

Summary: Bank for International Settlements warns that unmoored inflation expectations could trigger massive economic shock amid trade tensions and policy uncertainty., Description: The Bank for International Settlements warned Sunday that the global economy stands at a crossroads, with "unmoored" inflation expectations posing risks of a massive shock as trade tensions and policy uncertainty threaten to reshape the economic landscape. In its flagship 2025 Annual Economic Report released today, the Basel-based institution cautioned that widespread uncertainty could trigger...

Why AI will eat McKinsey’s lunch — but not today

Summary:

Navin Chaddha, managing director of the 55-year-old Silicon Valley venture firm Mayfield, is betting big on AI’s ability to transform people-heavy industries like consulting, law, and accounting. The veteran investor, whose wins include Lyft, Poshmark, and HashiCorp, recently discussed at TechCrunch’s StrictlyVC evening in Menlo Park why he believes “AI teammates” can create software-like margins […]

OpenAI reportedly ‘recalibrating’ compensation in response to Meta hires

Summary:

With Meta successfully poaching a number of its senior researchers, an OpenAI executive reportedly reassured team members Saturday that company leadership has not “been standing idly by.”

Authors call on publishers to limit their use of AI

Summary:

An open letter from authors including Lauren Groff, Lev Grossman, R.F. Kuang, Dennis Lehane, and Geoffrey Maguire calls on book publishers to pledge to limit their use of AI tools, for example by committing to only hire human audiobook narrators.

Meta reportedly hires four more researchers from OpenAI

Summary:

Looks like Meta isn’t done poaching talent from OpenAI.

Anthropic’s Claude AI became a terrible business owner in experiment that got ‘weird’

Summary:

Researchers at Anthropic and AI safety company Andon Labs gave an instance of Claude Sonnet 3.7 an office vending machine to run. And hilarity ensued.

Aukera raises $15M led by Peak XV to expand retail presence

Bengaluru-based Aukera aims to scale its lab-grown diamond retail network as consumer interest in sustainable fine jewellery rises.

Fine jewellery brand GIVA raises Rs 530 Cr in Series C funding led by Creaegis

GIVA will use the capital to scale its retail and digital footprint, enhance tech-enabled supply chain capabilities, deepen its offerings in lab-grown diamond jewellery, and expand into new categories.

GoKwik secures $13 M in round led by RTP Global

Ecommerce enablement platform GoKwik has raised $13 million in a growth round to support its international expansion and AI-offerings.

[Weekly funding roundup June 14-20] VC inflow crashes to second lowest level for the year

Venture capital funding into Indian startups dropped to the second lowest level for the year till date. This is the fourth time that the total amount has fallen below $100 million level on a weekly basis.

Broking platform Sahi raises $10.5M in Series A funding from Accel, Elevation Capital

Sahi will use the funding to enhance product capabilities with advanced automation, expand into new markets to reach more active traders across India, and grow the team.

Battery Smart raises $21M in ongoing Series B funding round

The battery swapping operator raised $65 million in June last year led by LeapFrog Investments with participation from Blume Ventures and British International Investment, among others.

Flipspaces raises Rs 50 Cr from Asiana Fund to expand global footprint

Flipspaces also aims to invest in its proprietary technology platform and explore strategic acquisitions in new markets and adjacent categories.

[Weekly funding roundup June 21-27] A sharp rise in VC inflow

The last week of June witnessed almost a six-fold jump in venture capital money into Indian startups.

Wiom raises $40M in growth funding led by Bertelsmann India, Accel

In an exclusive interview with YourStory, Wiom Founder Satyam Darmora shared the company’s growth plans following its $40 million fundraise.

EKA Mobility raises Rs 200 Cr from ENAM Holdings

The company intends to use majority of the funds to set up its plants, ramp up production of its passenger and goods carrier vehicles, and expand its product portfolio over the next two years.

Jindal Steel Boosts Capacity at Angul, Targets 12 MTPA by 2025

Jindal Steel & Power commissions first CGL 1 at Angul Steel Complex. Plans to increase steel capacity to 12 MTPA by end-2025. Source: ScoutQuest

Texmaco Rail Targets 30% Exports in 4 Years

Texmaco Rail aims for 30% export contribution to its orderbook in 3-4 years. Source: ScoutQuest

SKF India Plans Demerger to Focus on Auto & Industrial Segments

SKF India shared FY25 financials: Revenue Rs. 49,199 Mn, PAT Rs. 5,658 Mn. Planned demerger aims to focus separately on automotive and industrial businesses. Source: ScoutQuest

Hero Moto Falls 2%, Jio Fin Up 2%; Sensex Opens Lower

Hero Moto declines 2%, while Jio Financial Services gains 2% in early trade. Sensex drops slightly, Nifty trades below 25,650 at opening bell. Source: ScoutQuest

Insolation Energy Unit Bags ₹380 Cr Solar Project Under PM-KUSUM

Insolation Energy's subsidiary wins LOI for 109.79 MW solar plants under PMKUSUM Scheme. Total investment Rs. 380 Cr; levelized tariffs range from Rs. 2.55 to Rs. 3.04/unit for 58 sites. Source: BSE

Apar Industries Reports 29.6% Profit Growth, Strong ROCE at 35.2%

Apar Industries posts strong 20.1% net sales growth, 29.6% profit rise, and 0.01 debt-equity ratio. With 35.2% ROCE, 4.6 interest cover, and 30.5% institutional holdings, its long-term outlook remains positive. Source: Marketsmojo

Ashok Leyland Q4 Sales Up 17%, Debt Concerns Loom

Ashok Leyland reports FY24 Q4 net sales of Rs 14,695.55 crore, annual growth of 17.2%. Despite strong returns, concerns include 3.06 debt/equity ratio and pledged promoter shares. Source: Marketsmojo

ICICI Bank Sees FY26 Trade Deficit at $300B, CAD at 0.7% of GDP

ICICI Bank projects India's trade deficit to hit $300bn in FY26, 7% of GDP, despite moderate oil prices. Services exports, remittances steady; CAD expected at $30bn, 0.7% of GDP amid resilient domestic growth. Source: The Economic Times

Nestle India: 9.7% Sales Growth, 12.6% FMCG Share, ₹2.37L Cr Valuation

Nestle India adjusts evaluation score; ROE at 97.9%, annual net sales growth at 9.7%. With debt/EBITDA at 0.16x, Nestle holds 12.6% FMCG market share, valued at Rs 2.37L Cr. Source: Marketsmojo

Citi Ups RBL Bank Target to ₹285, Sees 19% Upside

Citi sees 19% upside for RBL Bank, raises target price to Rs 285. RoA to improve via normalized credit costs; slippages to moderate. Source: Moneycontrol

Copper Holds Advance on Falling Stockpiles

Country: Commodity, Description: Copper futures held above $5 per pound on Monday, hovering near three-month highs amid mounting concerns over tightening global supply. London Metal Exchange inventories fell again last week, dropping to 91,275 metric tons—the lowest level in nearly two years. Similarly, data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed copper stockpiles declined by 19.11% to 81,550 metric tons, hitting a one-month low. The inventory drawdowns come as traders have been redirecting shipments toward the US to front-run potential tariffs. Since the Trump administration launched a probe into copper imports in February, an estimated 400 kilotons have been rushed into the US in anticipation of possible levies, contributing to a supply squeeze in other markets.

Loonie Stabilizes as Canada Rescinds Digital Services Tax

Country: Canada, Description: The Canadian dollar stabilized around 1.367 per USD after Canadian Finance Ministry announced late on Sunday that it is rescinding a digital-services tax in a bid to advance stalled trade negotiations with the US. The move comes after US President Donald Trump abruptly called off talks on Friday over the tax targeting American tech firms. The leaders from both countries will resume negotiations to agree on a deal by July 21. Despite this positive development, the Canadian dollar’s upside remains limited. Easing Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices lower, stripping the loonie of a key terms-of-trade support pillar. Sentiment was further weighed down by disappointing economic data. Canada’s GDP contracted by 0.1% in April, with preliminary estimates pointing to a similar decline in May. This puts the economy on track for a modest contraction in the second quarter, as activity continues to be dampened by tariff uncertainty.

Thailand Industrial Output Growth Beats Estimates

Country: Thailand, Description: Thailand's industrial production expanded by 1.88% year-on-year in May 2025, slightly above market expectations of 1.8% growth, following a 2.17% rise in the previous month. This marked the third consecutive month of rising industrial activity. Last month, the industry ministry cut its 2025 forecasts range to growth of 0% - 1% from 1.5% - 2.5% previously.

South Korean Won Gains Amid Dollar Weakness

Country: South Korea, Description: The South Korean won strengthened to around 1,358 per dollar on Monday, extending its advance as the greenback weakened amid fiscal concerns and in anticipation of Thursday’s US jobs report, which is expected to signal further labor market cooling. Investor sentiment also improved following the return of trade envoy Yeo Han-koo from Washington, where he held the first high-level tariff talks since President Lee’s June inauguration, aiming to secure US exemptions from steel, automobile, and reciprocal tariffs ahead of the deadline. On the domestic front, retail sales remained flat month-on-month in May, following a 0.9% decline in April, underscoring ongoing challenges in consumer demand despite the currency’s recent strength.

Japan 10-Year Yield Climbs on Hawkish BOJ Signals

Country: Japan, Description: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 1.44% on Monday, rising for the third straight session amid hawkish bets on Bank of Japan monetary policy. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently indicated that further rate hikes are possible if wage growth supports domestic consumption and allows firms to raise prices, key factors in sustaining inflation around the 2% target. The central bank also reiterated plans to gradually scale back its bond purchases, aiming to make long-term yields more market-driven. Meanwhile, data showed Japan’s industrial production rose less than expected in May, as elevated US tariffs continued to dampen the outlook. The 25% tariff on Japanese car imports remains a major sticking point in ongoing trade negotiations with Washington. Looking ahead, investors are turning their attention to Tuesday’s Tankan survey for a clearer read on corporate sentiment and the broader economic environment.

Hong Kong Stocks Dip But Stay on Track for Monthly Gains

Country: Hong Kong, Description: Shares in Hong Kong fell 94 points or 0.4% to 24,183 in Monday morning trade, extending losses for a third straight session amid broad weakness in consumer and financial stocks. Cautious traders weighed China’s official June PMI data, which showed manufacturing contracting at the slowest pace in three months, while services activity expanded the most since March. Meanwhile, China’s statistics agency said that overall economic activity gained momentum last month, despite persistent internal and external challenges. The four largest stocks by market capitalization declined, including Tencent Holdings (-1.4%), Xiaomi Corp. (-1.3%), Meituan (-1.2%), and AIA Group (-0.8%). Still, the Hang Seng is set to log the second straight monthly advance, jumping around 3.7% so far, buoyed by easing Sino-U.S. trade tensions after a rare earth export framework deal, ongoing support measures from Beijing to stimulate consumption and mitigate deflation risks, and strength in the city’s IPO activity.

Offshore Yuan Firms as Stimulus Bets Grow

Country: China, Description: The offshore yuan strengthened to around 7.16 per dollar on Monday, recouping losses from the previous week, as the latest PMI data reinforced expectations of further stimulus measures. Official data showed China’s manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.7 in June from 49.5 but remained in contraction for a third straight month. The non-manufacturing PMI also rose slightly to 50.5, indicating tepid growth in services and construction. These figures underscore the gradual and uneven pace of China’s economic recovery, bolstering bets on additional stimulus from Beijing. This aligns with Premier Li Qiang’s recent address at a key economic forum, where he emphasized efforts to boost domestic demand amid persistent deflation. A weaker US dollar also supported the yuan amid Fed easing bets. Meanwhile, renewed trade talks with Washington offered cautious optimism, though concerns remain over key details. Markets now await Tuesday’s Caixin PMI data for further insight into private-sector momentum.

Australia 10-Year Yield Rebounds

Country: Australia, Description: Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.18%, rebounding from an eight-month low as investors digested recent data and awaited more ahead of next week’s interest rate decision. The Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation gauge edged up 0.1% month-over-month in June, reversing a 0.4% decline in May. Meanwhile, private sector credit growth slowed and missed expectations, signaling weaker credit demand and signs of cooling economic activity. This followed last week’s sharper-than-expected drop in May inflation, which brought it near the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target range and strengthened the case for a rate cut in July. Still, economists noted the RBA is likely to remain cautious, citing tight labor market conditions, sluggish productivity, and lingering price pressures from recovering demand. Investors now look to May retail sales, manufacturing PMI and trade data for further clues on Australia’s growth outlook and policy path.

US 10-Year Yield Remains Under Pressure

Country: United States, Description: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.28% on Monday, remaining under pressure as investors awaited this week’s key employment data, which could reveal signs of labor market softness and strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The Fed has previously cited a resilient labor market as justification for holding rates steady while assessing the impact of elevated tariffs. However, a weaker-than-expected June jobs report could shift expectations toward a rate cut as early as July. Adding to the dovish sentiment, Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled during congressional testimony that, absent inflationary pressures from tariffs, the Fed would likely have continued easing policy. Meanwhile, market participants are also closely watching the progress of President Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill in the Senate, which is projected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt—further fueling fiscal concerns.

Australian Dollar Edges Higher

Country: Australia, Description: The Australian dollar edged higher to around $0.653 on Monday, supported by continued weakness in the greenback amid a dovish Federal Reserve and growing fiscal concerns. Investors are closely watching upcoming US jobs data, which could shape expectations for a rate cut in July. Adding to pressure on the greenback is the investor anxiety over a sweeping tax and spending bill currently under consideration in the Senate, which could add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. Domestically, the Melbourne Institute’s Monthly Inflation Gauge showed a modest uptick in June, reversing the previous month's decline and marking the fourth increase this year. However, private sector credit growth slowed, falling short of market expectations. The deceleration was largely driven by weaker business lending activity. Investors now await Australia’s June manufacturing PMI for insights into the health of the sector and the country's overall economic momentum.