Daily Strategic BriefingSaturday, June 28, 2025 |
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"Today's market data paints a mixed picture with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ showing modest gains, while global markets reflect uncertainty and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Key themes include the rapid advancement of AI and its implications, the evolving landscape of trade and geopolitics, and shifts in the financial sector. The US stock market reached record highs driven by trade optimism, although this was partially offset by Trump's comments regarding trade talks with Canada. Simultaneously, global commodity markets show volatility, with energy prices fluctuating significantly. The tech sector sees major developments with Tesla's autonomous vehicle delivery and Meta's aggressive recruitment of AI talent, signaling intense competition in this space. Furthermore, the defense sector shows promise with Raphe mPhibr's funding round and the launch of LTTS's new engineering center. Policy and regulatory changes are also in flux, with California's budget adjustments to healthcare and potential federal intervention on AI regulations. Global trade is impacted by renewed tariff threats and shifting alliances, as reflected in the Canadian market's reaction. The Supreme Court's ruling regarding LGBTQ storybooks, along with other political events, signals evolving social and regulatory landscapes. Financial markets see companies like R R Kabel and Karur Vysya Bank showing strength, and JM Financial fully owning its credit arm, boosting profits. The rise in natural gas prices and the decline in platinum further demonstrate the shifting dynamics in the commodity market."
Market Dashboard
Key DevelopmentNewsom signs $321B budget scaling back immigrant healthcareSummary: The California governor's budget scales back Medi-Cal for undocumented immigrants, freezing enrollment and adding premiums to save $5 billion., Description: California Governor Gavin Newsom has signed a $321 billion state budget that scales back healthcare coverage for undocumented immigrants, including an enrollment freeze beginning in 2026, $30 monthly premiums for adults starting in 2027, and elimination of full dental coverage, marking a significant retreat from his previous progressive healthcare policies. Republican Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska to announce retirement from CongressSummary: The five-term congressman has clashed with Trump on Ukraine and tariffs, leaving Republicans vulnerable in a district Harris won., Description: Republican Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, who narrowly won re-election in his competitive district in 2024 despite it voting for Kamala Harris, has emerged as a self-described "man in the wilderness" among GOP lawmakers, opposing President Trump on issues ranging from Ukraine policy to presidential tariff powers since returning to Congress. Tesla delivers first car fully autonomously to customerSummary: A Model Y drove itself from Tesla's Texas factory to an Austin home with no human occupant or remote supervision., Description: Tesla delivered its first vehicle fully autonomously from factory to customer on Friday, with a Model Y electric SUV driving itself from the company's Texas facility to a home in Austin without any human occupant or remote supervision. The milestone, announced by CEO Elon Musk on X, represents Tesla's latest push into autonomous driving technology and comes just five days after the company... Supreme Court rules in favor of parents against LGBTQ storybooksSummary: The 6-3 ruling requires schools to allow opt-outs from lessons featuring LGBTQ-themed books that contradict families' religious beliefs., Description: In a significant 6-3 ruling along ideological lines, the U.S. Supreme Court has sided with Christian and Muslim parents in Maryland who sought to opt their elementary school children out of classes featuring LGBTQ+-themed storybooks, determining that requiring children to participate in instruction that contradicts their families' religious beliefs unconstitutionally burdens parents' right to... Trump raises record $1.4B war chest for 2026 midtermsSummary: The unprecedented fundraising haul positions Trump to play a dominant role defending narrow Republican majorities in Congress., Description: President Donald Trump has amassed a record $1.4 billion war chest since Election Day 2024, positioning him to play a dominant role in the 2026 midterm elections as Republicans fight to maintain their narrow congressional majorities, according to Fox News Digital. The fundraising total, which includes $900 million raised by Trump's political operation and the Republican National Committee since... Meta poaches three OpenAI researchers in AI talent warSummary: The hires from OpenAI's Zurich office follow reports of Zuckerberg personally recruiting researchers with compensation packages reaching $100 million., Description: Meta has recruited three researchers from OpenAI's Zurich office to join its artificial intelligence team, marking the latest escalation in Silicon Valley's battle for top AI talent. Lucas Beyer, Alexander Kolesnikov, and Xiaohua Zhai, who helped establish OpenAI's Swiss operations last year, confirmed their departure to work on Meta's new "superintelligence" efforts. The hires underscore CEO... Denmark grants citizens copyright over their own facesSummary: The country will become the first in Europe to let people demand removal of unauthorized deepfakes and seek compensation., Description: Denmark announced Thursday it will grant its citizens copyright protection over their own faces, voices and bodies, positioning itself to become the first European country to enact comprehensive legislation against unauthorized deepfake content. The Danish government secured broad cross-party support for amending copyright law to give individuals ownership rights over their physical likeness,... University of Virginia President James Ryan resigns amid federal pressure on DEISummary: James Ryan stepped down after Justice Department threatened to cut funding over diversity programs at the university., Description: University of Virginia President James E. Ryan has resigned amid pressure from the Trump administration over the school's diversity, equity, and inclusion practices, with the Justice Department threatening the loss of millions in federal funding, research grants, student financial aid, and international student visas if he remained in his position, part of a broader federal effort to eliminate... Cuomo to continue New York mayoral run as independent after losing primarySummary: The former governor will remain on November's ballot through his "Fight and Deliver" line after conceding to progressive Zohran Mamdani., Description: According to ABC News and Fox News, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo will remain on the New York City mayoral ballot in November as an independent candidate after conceding the Democratic primary to state assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, though it remains unclear if he will actively campaign in the coming months. Wall Street economist reverses recession warning on tariffsSummary: Apollo's chief economist now says Trump's tariff strategy could generate $400 billion annually while keeping trade partners satisfied., Description: A prominent Wall Street economist who warned earlier this year that President Donald Trump's tariffs could trigger a recession by summer has reversed course, suggesting the administration may have crafted a strategy that generates substantial revenue while appeasing trading partners. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, wrote in a weekend blog post that Trump's tariff... AI NewsCongress might block state AI laws for a decade. Here’s what it means.Summary: A federal proposal that would ban states and local governments from regulating AI for 10 years could soon be signed into law, as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and other lawmakers work to secure its inclusion into a GOP megabill ahead of a key July 4 deadline. Here’s what’s at stake. As job losses loom, Anthropic launches program to track AI’s economic falloutSummary: As warnings mount about AI’s potential to displace millions of jobs, Anthropic on Friday launched a its Economic Futures Program, new initiative to support research and policy development that addresses AI’s economic impacts. Meta is offering multimillion-dollar pay for AI researchers, but not $100M ‘signing bonuses’Summary: Meta is offering multimillion-dollar pay packages to AI researchers. But no one is really getting a $100 million “signing bonus.” Facebook is asking to use Meta AI on photos in your camera roll you haven’t yet sharedSummary: By clicking “Allow,” you’ll let Facebook generate new ideas from your camera roll, like collages, recaps, AI restylings, or photo themes. Big Tech lands an early win in legal battles against publishersSummary: This week, two major AI companies scored early wins in court, with federal judges siding with Meta and Anthropic in separate lawsuits over how their models were trained on copyrighted material. The decisions represent the first real legal validation of AI companies’ argument that training models on books, images, and other creative works can be […] Global Economic IndicatorsAgricultural Commodities Updates: Oat Surges by 5.75%Country: Commodity, Description: Top commodity gainers are Oat (5.75%), Cocoa (3.28%) and Rubber (2.13%). Biggest losers are Orange Juice (-4.85%), Cotton (-2.86%) and Canola (-1.94%). Metals Commodities Updates: Platinum Falls by 4.68%Country: Commodity, Description: Top commodity losers are Platinum (-4.68%), Silver (-1.88%) and Gold (-1.65%). Gains are led by Iron Ore CNY (2.36%) and Lithium Carbonate (0.91%). Energy Commodities Updates: Natural gas Soars by 6.24%Country: Commodity, Description: Top commodity gainers are Natural gas (6.24%) and Uranium (0.70%). Biggest losers are Heating Oil (-3.51%), Gasoline (-1.15%), Methanol (-0.94%), Brent Crude Oil (-0.50%) and Crude Oil WTI (-0.26%). FX Updates: South Korean Won Depreciates by 0.47%Country: Currency, Description: Top currency losers are South Korean Won (-0.47%), Turkish Lira (-0.37%), Australian Dollar (-0.30%) and British Pound (-0.10%). Gains are led by Swiss Franc (0.35%), Mexican Peso (0.34%), Swedish Krona (0.30%), Euro (0.20%), Dollar Index (0.13%) and Japanese Yen (0.04%). Ibovespa Posts Marginal Weekly LossesCountry: Brazil, Description: The Ibovespa edged down 0.2% to close at 136,866 on Friday to close the week 0.2% lower as a resurgence of fiscal uncertainty, elevated domestic discount rates and firmer US yields combined to dampen appetite for Brazilian equities. The abrupt congressional repeal of the IOF surcharge, originally designed to bolster revenue, has reignited discussions over necessary primary-spending cuts and undermined confidence in near-term fiscal consolidation. Meanwhile, while Brazil’s labor market remains resilient with unemployment at 6.2% in the three months through May (better than the 6.4% consensus), sectoral performance was mixed: Petrobras underperformed, slipping about 1% on concerns over higher funding costs and regulatory headwinds, while heavyweight names such as Ambev, WEG and Rede D’Or each fell between 1% and 1.5%, reflecting broad-based caution across consumer staples, industrials and healthcare. TSX Pressured by Renewed Tariff ThreatsCountry: Canada, Description: The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.2% to below the 26,692 on Friday, trimming some of the weekly gains to 0.7% amid fresh tariff threats, commodity headwinds and domestic stagnation. President Trump’s decision to terminate all trade negotiations with Canada over its digital services tax—and his threat of looming retaliatory tariffs—has rattled exporters and injected fresh uncertainty into Canada’s trade-dependent sectors. At the same time, Statistics Canada’s data reveal back-to-back 0.1% GDP contractions in April and a likely repeat in May, underscoring how US levies and tariff uncertainty are weighing on manufacturing and wholesale trade. Major mining equities led the decline with Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious, and Barrick Gold tumbling between 2.8% and 5.3% amid a sharp decline in gold—now at a four-week low, as safe-haven demand wanes amid easing geopolitical tensions and clarity on the US–China trade accord. S&P 500, Nasdaq Close at Record Highs on Trade HopesCountry: United States, Description: US stocks closed at record highs on Friday driven by optimism over pending trade agreements and rising expectations for interest rate cuts, as investors looked past President Donald Trump’s comments about halting trade talks with Canada. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, closing above its February peak, while the Nasdaq 100 also advanced 0.5% to a new high. The Dow Jones rose by 432 points. Earlier in the day, markets surged on encouraging news of trade progress with key partners, including a framework agreement with China. Although Trump’s unexpected remarks on Canada briefly dented sentiment, they failed to derail the broader rally. The market’s strong rebound from April lows has been driven by easing inflation pressures and resilient corporate earnings. Supporting the positive tone, data showed an uptick in consumer sentiment and only a slight rise in core PCE inflation. Shares of Nike jumped 13% after an upbeat earnings report, while Amazon climbed 0.5% following an analyst upgrade. WTI Crude Posts Steep Weekly Drop Despite Friday ReboundCountry: Commodity, Description: WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.4% to settle at $65.5 per barrel on Friday, but posted their sharpest weekly declines in years as geopolitical risk premiums faded. The market had surged above USD 80 during the Iran-Israel conflict then easing after President Trump announced a ceasefire, soothing fears of supply disruptions from the region. Since then, Trump has sent mixed signals about his pressure campaign on Iran’s oil revenues, admitting US sanctions have done little to stop China’s purchases. Still, WTI crude fell 11% on the week, the steepest drop since March 2023. Market is refocusing on fundamentals, including upcoming OPEC+ decisions and signs of strengthening summer demand. Inventory data showing strong draws in distillates and signs of rising refinery activity also supported prices. Meanwhile, China’s Iranian crude imports hit a record high in June, further influencing global supply dynamics. Paraguay GDP Growth Accelerates in Q1Country: Paraguay, Description: Paraguay's GDP expanded 5.9% year-over-year in Q1 2025, up from 3.6% in the previous quarter. Growth was driven by strong performance in services (6% vs 4.8% in Q4), a rebound in utilities (8.3% vs -7.9%), continued expansion in construction (12.9% vs 13.6%), and manufacturing (6.6% vs 3.1%). Output in livestock, forestry, fishing, and mining surged 10.8% (vs 2.7%). Agriculture remained a drag, though its contraction eased (-3.4% vs -4.3%). From the expenditure side, domestic demand rose 9.3%, slightly below the 10.5% growth in Q4 2024. Wall Street Pulls Back After Trump’s Trade ShiftCountry: United States, Description: US stocks erased earlier gains on Friday after briefly hitting new record highs, as investor sentiment cooled following unexpected comments from President Donald Trump about terminating trade talks with Canada. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% after touching a fresh peak, the Nasdaq lost 0.3% after also reaching a record, while the Dow Jones rose 252 points. Markets rallied earlier in the day on optimism over new trade agreements with several key partners, including a framework deal with China. However, Trump’s abrupt announcement regarding Canada unsettled investors, cutting into the session’s gains. Still, the broader market has made a strong recovery from April lows, driven by easing inflation concerns, solid corporate earnings. Economic data also supported the rebound, with consumer sentiment improving and core PCE inflation rising only slightly .Nike surged 13% following strong earnings, and Amazon rose 0.5% after receiving an upgrade. Funding & Startup News: IndiaFine jewellery brand GIVA raises Rs 530 Cr in Series C funding led by CreaegisGIVA will use the capital to scale its retail and digital footprint, enhance tech-enabled supply chain capabilities, deepen its offerings in lab-grown diamond jewellery, and expand into new categories. NRI-focused fintech Aspora closes $53M round to broaden reachThe fresh capital will support Aspora’s push into new markets, including the United States, Canada, Australia, and Singapore. PharmEasy founders launch home improvement venture All Home, raise seed round at $120M valuationPharmEasy founders Dharmil Sheth, Dhaval Shah, and Hardik Dedhia have launched a one-stop shop for home improvement needs. EKA Mobility raises Rs 200 Cr from ENAM HoldingsThe company intends to use majority of the funds to set up its plants, ramp up production of its passenger and goods carrier vehicles, and expand its product portfolio over the next two years. B2B maintenance services startup CLR Facility Services bags $15M from BII to expand workforceWith this capital infusion, CLR plans to more than double its workforce to 50,000 employees over the next five to seven years. Fabheads raises $10M in Series A led by AccelThe new capital will be used to expand manufacturing capacity, grow the leadership team, and strengthen client-facing engineering and R&D functions. GoKwik secures $13 M in round led by RTP GlobalEcommerce enablement platform GoKwik has raised $13 million in a growth round to support its international expansion and AI-offerings. Battery Smart raises $21M in ongoing Series B funding roundThe battery swapping operator raised $65 million in June last year led by LeapFrog Investments with participation from Blume Ventures and British International Investment, among others. Wiom raises $40M in growth funding led by Bertelsmann India, AccelIn an exclusive interview with YourStory, Wiom Founder Satyam Darmora shared the company’s growth plans following its $40 million fundraise. [Weekly funding roundup June 14-20] VC inflow crashes to second lowest level for the yearVenture capital funding into Indian startups dropped to the second lowest level for the year till date. This is the fourth time that the total amount has fallen below $100 million level on a weekly basis. India Market HighlightsJM Financial Fully Owns Credit Arm, Boosts ProfitsJM Financial acquired 2.98% stake from Moraine Master Fund to fully own JM Financial Credit Solutions. The move strengthens control over the NBFC and enhances consolidated profits. Source: ScoutQuest NLC India Wins 450 MW Hybrid Project from NTPCNLC India secures 450 MW wind-solar hybrid project from NTPC. Project spans Rajasthan (300 MW) and Gujarat (150 MW), with 25-year PPA. Source: ScoutQuest Sri Adhikari Open Offer at ₹10/Share; Acquirer to Buy 59.1% Stake by Sep 2025Sri Adhikari Brothers sees open offer to acquire 53.46L shares at Rs 10/share. Acquirer to buy 1.5Cr shares (59.1%) via agreement, completing by Sep 2025. Source: ScoutQuest Spice Money Renews RBI Certificate, Digital Payments UninterruptedDigispice's subsidiary, Spice Money, renews RBI Certificate for prepaid payment instruments. The renewal ensures continued and expanded digital payment services with no suspension reported. Source: ScoutQuest FDA Clears Granules India Unit with Minor ObservationFDA completed pre-approval inspection at Granules India's US subsidiary from June 23-27, 2025. One 483 observation raised and resolved, linked to the first controlled substance ANDA filing. Source: ScoutQuest LTTS Launches Texas Center, Adds 350+ Jobs in AI & CybersecurityL&T Technology Services opens a new Engineering Design Center in Plano, Texas, focusing on AI, cybersecurity, and digital manufacturing. The center aims to create 350+ skilled jobs, showcasing LTTS's leadership in innovation across smart cities and Industry 4.0. Source: MarketScreener India Aarti Industries Gains 1%, Down 31% YoYAarti Industries rose to ₹475.9 on 26 Jun, gaining 1.06% and 8.79% weekly. Despite short-term gains, it saw a 31.4% yearly drop and 21.1% profit decline. Source: Marketsmojo Raphe mPhibr Raises $100M, Valued at $836MRaphe mPhibr secures $100M funding led by General Catalyst, valuing it at $836M. The defence drone startup reported Rs 86.1cr revenue in FY24, with 366% 5-year CAGR. Source: Financial Express Karur Vysya Bank Nears 52-Week High on Strong FundamentalsKarur Vysya Bank rises to Rs 250.2, up Rs 3.15 or 1.3%, nearing its 52-week high. Strong fundamentals, 70.2% rise in delivery volumes, and high institutional holdings boost investor confidence. Source: Marketsmojo R R Kabel Hits ₹7,618 Cr Revenue; Wires & Cables Lead with 88%R R Kabel Ltd announces its 31st AGM on 21 July 2025 via VC/OAVM, sharing its FY 2024-25 Annual Report. The company reported highest-ever revenue of INR 7,618 Cr in FY 2024-25, with Wires & Cables contributing 88% of revenue. Source: BSE |
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